ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

S. W. Y. is supported by the KoreaMeteorological Administration Researchand Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2112. Wenju Cai is supported by Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australia National Environmental Science Programme, and Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, an international collaboration between CSIRO and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Sciences and Technology. B. Dewitte acknowledges supports from FONDECYT(1151185) and from LEFE-GMMC. Dietmar Dommenget is supported by ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028).

[1]  Jin‐Yi Yu,et al.  The enhanced drying effect of Central-Pacific El Niño on US winter , 2013 .

[2]  S. Gualdi,et al.  The Double-ITCZ Syndrome in Coupled General Circulation Models: The Role of Large-Scale Vertical Circulation Regimes , 2010 .

[3]  S. Yeh,et al.  A possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/1999 , 2013 .

[4]  R. Haarsma,et al.  The Impacts of Inter–El Niño Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate , 2011 .

[5]  Brian J. Hoskins,et al.  The Steady Linear Response of a Spherical Atmosphere to Thermal and Orographic Forcing , 1981 .

[6]  Hisashi Nakamura,et al.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited , 2016 .

[7]  A. E. Gill.  Some simple solutions for heat‐induced tropical circulation , 1980 .

[8]  W. Hsieh,et al.  Changes in the leading ENSO modes associated with the late 1970s climate shift: Role of surface zonal current , 2006 .

[9]  P. Jones,et al.  Global warming and changes in drought , 2014 .

[10]  G. Branstator,et al.  “Modes of Variability” and Climate Change , 2009 .

[11]  I. Richter.  Climate model biases in the eastern tropical oceans: causes, impacts and ways forward , 2015 .

[12]  R. Suppiah.  Trends in the southern oscillation phenomenon and Australian rainfall and changes in their relationship , 2004 .

[13]  The climate regime shift over the Pacific during 1996/1997 , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[14]  B. Fox‐Kemper,et al.  ENSO Model Validation Using Wavelet Probability Analysis , 2010 .

[15]  N. Graham.  Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results , 1994 .

[16]  Wolfgang A. Müller,et al.  ENSO teleconnections in projections of future climate in ECHAM5/MPI-OM , 2008 .

[17]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[18]  H. Hendon,et al.  Sensitivity of Australian Rainfall to Inter-El Niño Variations , 2007 .

[19]  J. Comiso,et al.  Linked trends in the South Pacific sea ice edge and Southern Oscillation Index , 2016 .

[20]  Arun Kumar,et al.  What is the variability in US west coast winter precipitation during strong El Niño events? , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[21]  W. Cai,et al.  Teleconnection Pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the Mechanisms for Impacts on Australian Rainfall , 2011 .

[22]  Michael J. McPhaden,et al.  Why did the 2011–2012 La Niña cause a severe drought in the Brazilian Northeast? , 2014 .

[23]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Indices of El Niño Evolution , 2001 .

[24]  A. Timmermann,et al.  ENSO and greenhouse warming , 2015 .

[25]  Aixue Hu,et al.  Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods , 2011 .

[26]  Naomi Naik,et al.  Does Global Warming Cause Intensified Interannual Hydroclimate Variability , 2012 .

[27]  R. Seager,et al.  The ENSO Teleconnection to the Tropical Atlantic Ocean: Contributions of the Remote and Local SSTs to Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Americas* , 2001 .

[28]  Gill Martin,et al.  Spatial Patterns of Precipitation Change in CMIP5: Why the Rich Do Not Get Richer in the Tropics , 2013 .

[29]  J. Bjerknes.  ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC1 , 1969 .

[30]  Peter J. Webster,et al.  Coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98 , 1999, Nature.

[31]  D. Karoly,et al.  CLIMATE CHANGE AND EL NINO INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF INDONESIAN HEAT AND DROUGHT , 2016 .

[32]  W. Cai,et al.  An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO Teleconnection Pathway and Its Impact on Australian Climate , 2012 .

[33]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  El Niño Impacts on Seasonal U.S. Atmospheric Circulation, Temperature, and Precipitation Anomalies: The OLR-Event Perspective* , 2013 .

[34]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Monsoon Failure During El Niño , 2006, Science.

[35]  Qinyu Liu,et al.  Global Warming–Induced Changes in El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America , 2014 .

[36]  Sukyoung Lee,et al.  Arctic Warming Induced by Tropically Forced Tapping of Available Potential Energy and the Role of the Planetary-Scale Waves , 2015 .

[37]  T. Matsuno,et al.  Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area , 1966 .

[38]  Bohua Huang.  Remotely forced variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean , 2004 .

[39]  J. Christensen,et al.  Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change , 2013 .

[40]  B. Goswami,et al.  A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean , 1999, Nature.

[41]  D. Dommenget,et al.  Analysis of the Nonlinearity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnections* , 2014 .

[42]  Agus Santoso,et al.  Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming , 2015 .

[43]  S. Xie,et al.  Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems* , 2014 .

[44]  S. Brönnimann,et al.  Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on European climate , 2007 .

[45]  T. Barnett,et al.  Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections , 1998 .

[46]  Kevin E. Trenberth,et al.  Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures , 1998 .

[47]  F. Jin,et al.  Two Types of El Nio Events: Cold Tongue El Nio and Warm Pool El Nio , 2009 .

[48]  C. Deser.  On the teleconnectivity of the “Arctic Oscillation” , 2000 .

[49]  Clara Deser,et al.  Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms. , 2010, Annual review of marine science.

[50]  Bin Wang,et al.  A new paradigm for the predominance of standing Central Pacific Warming after the late 1990s , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[51]  James W. Hurrell,et al.  Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific , 1994 .

[52]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño , 2009 .

[53]  A. Butler,et al.  Are the teleconnections of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niño distinct in boreal wintertime? , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[54]  Yu Kosaka,et al.  Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling , 2013, Nature.

[55]  S. Stevenson.  Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty‐first century: Results from CMIP5 , 2012 .

[56]  C. Deser,et al.  The Reemergence of SST Anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean , 1999 .

[57]  A. Barnston,et al.  Tropical pacific forcing of a 1998–1999 climate shift: observational analysis and climate model results for the boreal spring season , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[58]  N. Saji,et al.  Processes and boreal summer impacts of the 2004 El Niño Modoki: An AGCM study , 2009 .

[59]  J. David Neelin,et al.  Analyzing ENSO Teleconnections in CMIP Models as a Measure of Model Fidelity in Simulating Precipitation , 2013 .

[60]  A. Gordon,et al.  Pathways of water between the Pacific and Indian oceans in the Indonesian seas , 1996, Nature.

[61]  June‐Yi Lee,et al.  Interbasin coupling between the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean on interannual timescale: observation and CMIP5 reproduction , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[62]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part II: using AMIP runs to understand the heat flux feedback mechanisms , 2011 .

[63]  G. Meehl,et al.  Multi-model changes in El Niño teleconnections over North America in a future warmer climate , 2007 .

[64]  K. Mo,et al.  Relationships between Low-Frequency Variability in the Southern Hemisphere and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 2000 .

[65]  M. Latif,et al.  Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi‐centennial timescales , 2011 .

[66]  Reto Knutti,et al.  Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’ , 2017, Nature.

[67]  H. Kao.  Eastern Pacific and central Pacific types of ENSO , 2009 .

[68]  Michael J. McPhaden,et al.  La Niña forces unprecedented Leeuwin Current warming in 2011 , 2013, Scientific Reports.

[69]  Rainfall variability related to sea surface temperature anomalies in a Pacific–Andean basin into Ecuador and Peru , 2013 .

[70]  D. Dommenget,et al.  The effects of remote SST forcings on ENSO dynamics, variability and diversity , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[71]  F. Giorgi,et al.  The role of ENSO and PDO in variability of winter precipitation over North America from twenty first century CMIP5 projections , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[72]  G. Meehl,et al.  Megadroughts in the Indian Monsoon Region and Southwest North America and a Mechanism for Associated Multidecadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 2006 .

[73]  James L. Kinter,et al.  A Statistical–Dynamical Estimate of Winter ENSO Teleconnections in a Future Climate , 2009 .

[74]  Chunzai Wang.  Atmospheric Circulation Cells Associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation , 2002 .

[75]  Jorgen S. Frederiksen,et al.  Review of Tropical‐Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales , 2017 .

[76]  M. Mcphaden.  Evolution of the 2002/03 El Niño* , 2003 .

[77]  I. Kang,et al.  Changes in El Niño and La Niña teleconnections over North Pacific–America in the global warming simulations , 2010 .

[78]  E. Rasmusson,et al.  The Relationship Between Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Rainfall over India and Sri Lanka , 1983 .

[79]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[80]  W. Cai,et al.  The 2011 southeast Queensland extreme summer rainfall: A confirmation of a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase? , 2012 .

[81]  S. Xie,et al.  Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate , 2015 .

[82]  Y. Ham,et al.  An alterative effect by the tropical North Atlantic SST in intraseasonally varying El Niño teleconnection over the North Atlantic , 2013 .

[83]  J. Huba,et al.  Simulation of the seeding of equatorial spread F by circular gravity waves , 2013 .

[84]  M. Cane,et al.  Interannual Variability of Caribbean Rainfall, ENSO, and the Atlantic Ocean* , 2000 .

[85]  M. England,et al.  On the Interannual Variability of the Indonesian Throughflow and Its Linkage with ENSO , 2005 .

[86]  A. Timmermann,et al.  The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño , 2010 .

[87]  Yan Du,et al.  Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review , 2016, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

[88]  P. Sardeshmukh,et al.  Global Atmospheric Sensitivity to Tropical SST Anomalies throughout the Indo-Pacific Basin , 2002 .

[89]  Seon Tae Kim,et al.  The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models , 2012 .

[90]  M. Alexander,et al.  Natural variation in ENSO flavors , 2011 .

[91]  Sulagna Ray,et al.  El Niño variability in simple ocean data assimilation (SODA), 1871–2008 , 2011 .

[92]  N. Gruber,et al.  Remote versus local influence of ENSO on the California Current System , 2015 .

[93]  E. Pavia,et al.  PDO–ENSO Effects in the Climate of Mexico , 2006 .

[94]  N. Nicholls.  Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall , 1989 .

[95]  Sang-Wook Yeh,et al.  Recent progress on two types of El Niño: Observations, dynamics, and future changes , 2014, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.

[96]  G. Meehl,et al.  Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[97]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation , 1981 .

[98]  Bin Wang,et al.  Interdecadal Change of the Structure of the ENSO Mode and Its Impact on the ENSO Frequency , 2000 .

[99]  J. Wallace,et al.  Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnections in Boreal Summer: Observed Interannual Variability* , 2011 .

[100]  S. Xie,et al.  Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon , 2006 .

[101]  M. Graco,et al.  Oxygenation episodes on the continental shelf of central Peru: Remote forcing and benthic ecosystem response , 2008 .

[102]  Bin Wang,et al.  A mechanism for decadal changes of ENSO behavior: roles of background wind changes , 2002 .

[103]  Dan Lubin,et al.  January 2016 extensive summer melt in West Antarctica favoured by strong El Niño , 2017, Nature Communications.

[104]  S. Lewandowsky,et al.  Climate science: The 'pause' unpacked , 2017, Nature.

[105]  Andrew T. Wittenberg,et al.  El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand? , 2010 .

[106]  Atusi Numaguti,et al.  Tropical Atlantic air‐sea interaction and its influence on the NAO , 2001 .

[107]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  UNDERSTANDING EL NINO IN OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS : Progress and Challenges , 2008 .

[108]  M. Latif,et al.  Two major modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoon , 2010 .

[109]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation , 2007 .

[110]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer , 2007 .

[111]  D. Stevens,et al.  Interannual variability of the tropical Atlantic independent of and associated with ENSO: Part I. The North Tropical Atlantic , 2006 .

[112]  S. Yeh,et al.  Changes in the relationship in the SST variability between the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific across the 1998/1999 regime shift , 2014 .

[113]  E. Chang,et al.  Combined effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[114]  B. Kirtman,et al.  Role of the western tropical Pacific in the North Pacific regime shift in the winter of 1998/1999 , 2014 .

[115]  G. Meehl,et al.  How sensitive are the Pacific–tropical North Atlantic teleconnections to the position and intensity of El Niño-related warming? , 2016, Climate Dynamics.

[116]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization , 2017 .

[117]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .

[118]  F. Jin,et al.  Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones intensified by El Niño delivery of subsurface ocean heat , 2014, Nature.

[119]  D. Zanchettin,et al.  Central pacific El Niño, the "subtropical bridge," and Eurasian climate , 2012 .

[120]  M. Collins,et al.  Uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude change from the past to the future , 2012 .

[121]  Bruce D. Cornuelle,et al.  The Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2005 .

[122]  J. Hansen,et al.  The impact of the 2009–10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches , 2011 .

[123]  S. Power,et al.  Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia , 1999 .

[124]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming , 2014 .

[125]  J. Wallace,et al.  Tropical forcing of the recent rapid Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Greenland , 2014, Nature.

[126]  J. Kug,et al.  The central Pacific as the export region of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature anomaly to Antarctic sea ice , 2011 .

[127]  Michael H. Glantz,et al.  ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science , 2006, Science.

[128]  Kristen D. Splinter,et al.  Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation , 2015 .

[129]  G. Burgers,et al.  Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections , 2005 .

[130]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Temperature Extremes , 2008 .

[131]  G. Meehl,et al.  Current and future U.S. weather extremes and El Niño , 2007 .

[132]  S. Xie,et al.  A coupled ocean‐atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific , 1994 .

[133]  J. O'Brien,et al.  Detection of the fast Kelvin wave teleconnection due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation , 1998 .

[134]  Zeng‐Zhen Hu,et al.  Interferential Impact of ENSO and PDO on Dry and Wet Conditions in the U.S. Great Plains , 2009 .

[135]  S. Xie,et al.  Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems* , 2014 .

[136]  N. Lau.  Interactions between global SST anomalies and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation , 1997 .

[137]  D. Bromwich,et al.  El Niño Flavors and Their Simulated Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation in the High Southern Latitudes , 2014 .

[138]  O. Pizarro,et al.  Vertical energy flux at ENSO time scales in the subthermocline of the Southeastern Pacific , 2017 .

[139]  Tim Li,et al.  Impact of Indian summer monsoon on the South Asian High and its influence on summer rainfall over China , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[140]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection , 2007 .

[141]  Jialin Lin,et al.  The Double-ITCZ Problem in IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Ocean–Atmosphere Feedback Analysis , 2007 .

[142]  Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez,et al.  The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. , 2001 .

[143]  David J. Karoly,et al.  Southern Hemisphere Circulation Features Associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events , 1989 .

[144]  The impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on maximum temperature extremes , 2012 .

[145]  Chunzai Wang,et al.  On the Relationship between the North Pacific Climate Variability and the Central Pacific El Niño , 2015 .

[146]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  Understanding ENSO Diversity , 2015 .

[147]  C. Deser,et al.  A Proposed Mechanism for the Asymmetric Duration of El Niño and La Niña , 2011 .

[148]  B. Soden,et al.  Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming , 2006 .

[149]  G. Meehl,et al.  Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming , 2014 .

[150]  Shamal Marathe,et al.  Revisiting El Niño Modokis , 2015, Climate Dynamics.

[151]  Tong Lee,et al.  Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central‐equatorial Pacific , 2010 .

[152]  A. J. Clarke,et al.  On ENSO Coastal Currents and Sea Levels , 1994 .

[153]  John R. Lanzante,et al.  The Atmospheric Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air-Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans , 2002 .

[154]  Shang-Ping Xie,et al.  Intermodel Uncertainty in ENSO Amplitude Change Tied to Pacific Ocean Warming Pattern , 2016 .

[155]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[156]  M. England,et al.  El Niño Modoki Impacts on Australian Rainfall , 2009 .

[157]  P. Whetton,et al.  Influence of climate variability on seasonal extremes over Australia , 2013 .

[158]  Gerald A. Meehl,et al.  Disappearance of the southeast U.S. “warming hole” with the late 1990s transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , 2015 .

[159]  Eric Guilyardi,et al.  Representing El Niño in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCMs: The Dominant Role of the Atmospheric Component , 2004 .

[160]  A. Fedorov,et al.  Is El Nino changing? , 2000, Science.

[161]  M. Hoerling,et al.  ENSO variability, teleconnections and climate change , 2001 .

[162]  A. Wittenberg.  Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? , 2009 .

[163]  J. Wallace,et al.  ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93 , 1997 .

[164]  G. Marshall,et al.  The impacts of El Niño on the observed sea ice budget of West Antarctica , 2017 .

[165]  ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño , 2011 .

[166]  M. Hoerling,et al.  The Nature and Causes for the Delayed Atmospheric Response to El Niño , 2003 .

[167]  Evan Weller,et al.  Influence of Climate Variability on Extreme Ocean Surface Wave Heights Assessed from ERA-Interim and ERA-20C , 2016 .

[168]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Precipitation Extremes , 2010 .

[169]  M. J. Salinger,et al.  Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific Convergence Zone , 2002 .

[170]  W. Tao,et al.  Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean Basin Mode and their relationship under global warming in CMIP5 models , 2015 .

[171]  R. Seager,et al.  How Can Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Transport Vary , 2004 .

[172]  C. Deser,et al.  Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections , 2013 .

[173]  Ngar-Cheung Lau,et al.  Remote Sea Surface Temperature Variations during ENSO: Evidence for a Tropical Atmospheric Bridge , 1999 .

[174]  D. Sikka.  Some aspects of the large scale fluctuations of summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to fluctuations in the planetary and regional scale circulation parameters , 1980 .

[175]  S. Schubert,et al.  Role of tropical atlantic SST variability as a modulator of El Niño teleconnections , 2014, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.

[176]  J. Turner.  The El Niño–southern oscillation and Antarctica , 2004 .

[177]  Toshio Yamagata,et al.  Possible impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole mode events on global climate , 2003 .

[178]  W. Cai,et al.  La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability , 2009 .

[179]  Tong Lee,et al.  El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean , 2011 .

[180]  B. Kirtman,et al.  El Niño in a changing climate , 2009, Nature.

[181]  A dynamic link between the basin-scale and zonal modes in the Tropical Indian Ocean , 2004 .

[182]  J. Wallace,et al.  The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields , 1998 .

[183]  M. Mcphaden.  A 21st century shift in the relationship between ENSO SST and warm water volume anomalies , 2012 .

[184]  R. Seager,et al.  El Niño's impact on California precipitation: seasonality, regionality, and El Niño intensity , 2016 .

[185]  Y. Ham,et al.  ENSO amplitude changes due to greenhouse warming in CMIP5: Role of mean tropical precipitation in the twentieth century , 2015 .

[186]  S. Power,et al.  Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability , 2013, Nature.

[187]  P. Webster,et al.  Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction , 1998 .

[188]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4): Part II. Parametric and Structural Uncertainty Estimations , 2015 .

[189]  Camille Li,et al.  Influence of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the Genesis of Gulf Stream Cyclones , 2016 .

[190]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  Global Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies Robustly Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events—An OLR Perspective*,+ , 2015 .