A modeling analysis of young drivers' judgments of accident risk due to alcohol use and other driving conditions.

Male (60) and female (60) college students who were under the legal drinking age completed a personal driving experience questionnaire and judged the probability of an accident occurring in 100 driving scenarios, half involving an intoxicated male driver and half a sober male driver. The scenarios also varied in terms of the safety levels of five other driving factors. Mathematical models derived from the probability judgments permitted measurement of the influence of the various driving factors on perceived risk. The driving factors in order of their influence on the accident probability judgments were driver intoxication-nonintoxication, vehicle speed, road conditions, driver mood and driving experience, which did not significantly differ, and the driver's experience with alcohol use. Accident probability estimates of the alcohol scenarios increased as an additive function of the other driving factors, whereas increased risk of an accident in the no-alcohol scenarios was more dependent upon multiple unsafe factors. Female students judged the probability of an accident higher overall than did male students. Subject drinking classification (abstain-light, moderate or heavy) was not related to accident probability estimates.

[1]  Brian A. Jonah,et al.  FIELD DEPENDENCE, SENSATION SEEKING AND DRIVING BEHAVIOUR , 1984 .

[2]  T. R. Stewart.  Chapter 2 Judgment Analysis: Procedures , 1988 .

[3]  Gregory W. Fischer,et al.  UTILITY MODELS FOR MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISIONS: DO THEY ACCURATELY REPRESENT HUMAN PREFERENCES?* , 1979 .

[4]  K. Beck,et al.  The social context of drinking among high school drinking drivers. , 1987, The American journal of drug and alcohol abuse.

[5]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[6]  M L Matthews,et al.  Age differences in male drivers' perception of accident risk: the role of perceived driving ability. , 1986, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[7]  B. Brehmer,et al.  Chapter 3 What Have we Learned about Human Judgment from Thirty Years of Policy Capturing , 1988 .

[8]  B W Bragg,et al.  Perception of the risk of an accident by young and older drivers. , 1986, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[9]  Heikki Summala,et al.  Young driver accidents: risk taking or failure of skills? , 1987 .

[10]  B A Jonah,et al.  Accident risk and risk-taking behaviour among young drivers. , 1986, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[11]  D. Cahalan,et al.  American drinking practices: A national study of drinking behavior and attitudes. , 1970 .

[12]  F L Mannering,et al.  Decisions relating to alcohol-impaired driving: an exploratory analysis. , 1987, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[13]  K. Beck,et al.  COMPARISON OF THE SOCIAL CONTEXT FOR ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION OF COLLEGE STUDENTS AND CONVICTED DWI OFFENDERS , 1985 .

[14]  T. Cameron.  Drinking and driving among American youth: beliefs and behaviors. , 1982, Drug and alcohol dependence.

[15]  Brian A. Jonah,et al.  Youth and risk: age differences in risky driving, risk perception, and risk utility , 1987 .

[16]  Q C Thurman,et al.  Estimating social-psychological effects in decisions to drink and drive: a factorial survey approach. , 1986, Journal of studies on alcohol.

[17]  J. Farrow.  Young driver risk taking: a description of dangerous driving situations among 16- to 19-year-old drivers. , 1987, The International journal of the addictions.

[18]  M. Zuckerman.  Sensation Seeking : Beyond the Optimal Level of Arousal , 1979 .

[19]  David M. Harrington,et al.  The Young Driver Follow-Up Study: An Evaluation of the Role of Human Factors in the First Four Years of Driving. Final Highway Research Report. , 1971 .

[20]  S M Ross,et al.  Pilots' attitudes toward alcohol use and flying. , 1988, Aviation, space, and environmental medicine.

[21]  L E Ross,et al.  Young drivers' evaluation of driving impairment due to alcohol. , 1991, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[22]  R. Engs.  Drinking patterns and drinking problems of college students. , 1977, Journal of studies on alcohol.

[23]  F. A. Diblasio,et al.  Drinking adolescents on the roads , 1986, Journal of youth and adolescence.

[24]  B. Brehmer,et al.  Human judgment : the SJT view , 1988 .

[25]  Delbert Elliott,et al.  SELF-REPORTED DRIVING WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ALCOHOL DRUGS AND THE RISK OF ALCOHOL DRUG-RELATED ACCIDENTS , 1987 .