A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydropti- met, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that pro- duced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenom- ena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven op- erational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydrop- timet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall es- timates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation fore- casts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of fore- cast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contigu- ous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

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