Evaluating project completion times when activity times are Weibull distributed

Abstract Activity networks have been used to model complex projects with wide applications in the field of production, planning and control. Stochastic activity networks (SANs) require a priori distribution function (d.f.) such as normal, exponential, Erlang and others. In this paper, a development of the moments method based on Weibull distribution of activity time is presented. The method provides an accurate estimate of the project completion time compared with other d.f.'s estimates.

[1]  Richard E. Barlow,et al.  Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing: Probability Models , 1976 .

[2]  J. D. T. Oliveira,et al.  The Asymptotic Theory of Extreme Order Statistics , 1979 .

[3]  Alan D. Hutson,et al.  The exponentiated weibull family: some properties and a flood data application , 1996 .

[4]  Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan,et al.  On order statistics from non-identical right-truncated exponential random variables and some applications , 1994 .

[5]  Jan Magott,et al.  Estimating the mean completion time of PERT networks with exponentially distributed durations of activities , 1993 .

[6]  Salah E. Elmaghraby.  On criticality and sensitivity in activity networks , 2000, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[7]  N. L. Johnson,et al.  Continuous Univariate Distributions. , 1995 .

[8]  S. Elmaghraby.  Chapter 1 – THE ESTIMATION OF SOME NETWORK PARAMETERS IN THE PERT MODEL OF ACTIVITY NETWORKS: REVIEW AND CRITIQUE , 1989 .

[9]  Luís Vladares Tavares.  A review of the contribution of Operational Research to Project Management , 2002, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[10]  Luc Devroye.  Inequalities for the Completion Times of Stochastic PERT Networks , 1979, Math. Oper. Res..

[11]  Sheldon M. Ross,et al.  Stochastic Processes , 2018, Gauge Integral Structures for Stochastic Calculus and Quantum Electrodynamics.

[12]  Dimitri Golenko-Ginzburg,et al.  A New Approach to the Activity-time Distribution in PERT , 1989 .

[13]  Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan.  Order statistics from non-identical exponential random variables and some applications , 1994 .

[14]  Jerzy Kamburowski,et al.  An upper bound on the expected completion time of PERT networks , 1985 .

[15]  Shyam L. Kalla,et al.  A generalized gamma distribution and its application in reliabilty , 1996 .

[16]  Vidyadhar G. Kulkarni,et al.  Markov and Markov-Regenerative pert Networks , 1986, Oper. Res..

[17]  B. Arnold,et al.  A first course in order statistics , 1994 .

[18]  Govind S. Mudholkar,et al.  Generalized Weibull family: a structural analysis , 1994 .

[19]  Richard Loulou,et al.  A Comparison Of Variance Reducing Techniques In Pert Simulations , 1976 .

[20]  A. Bendell,et al.  Evaluating Project Completion Times When Activity Times are Erlang Distributed , 1995 .