Prediction of past unsolved terrorist attacks

In this study, a novel model is proposed to predict perpetuators of some terrorist events which are remain unsolved. The CPM learns from similarities between terrorist attacks and their crime attributes then puts them in appropriate clusters. Solved and unsolved attacks are gathered in the same - all linked to each other - “umbrella” clusters; then CPM classifies all related terrorist events which are expected to belong to one single terrorist group. The developed model is applied to a real crime dataset, which includes solved and unsolved terrorist attacks and crimes in Turkey between 1970 and 2005. CPM predictions produced significant precision value for big terrorist groups and reasonable recall values for small terrorist groups.

[1]  Shyam Varan Nath,et al.  Crime Pattern Detection Using Data Mining , 2006, 2006 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology Workshops.

[2]  Hsinchun Chen,et al.  Predicting criminal relationships using multivariate survival analysis , 2007, DG.O.

[3]  Peter J. H. King,et al.  Incrementally visualising criminal networks , 2002, Proceedings Sixth International Conference on Information Visualisation.

[4]  Hsinchun Chen,et al.  Using Social Contextual Information to Match Criminal Identities , 2006, Proceedings of the 39th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'06).

[5]  T.R. Coffman,et al.  Pattern classification in social network analysis: a case study , 2004, 2004 IEEE Aerospace Conference Proceedings (IEEE Cat. No.04TH8720).

[6]  Sherry Marcus,et al.  Graph-based technologies for intelligence analysis , 2004, CACM.

[7]  Giles Oatley,et al.  Crimes analysis software: 'pins in maps', clustering and Bayes net prediction , 2003, Expert Syst. Appl..

[8]  Uri J. Schild,et al.  Intelligent Computer Evaluation of Offender’s Previous Record , 2003, Artificial Intelligence and Law.

[9]  Giles Oatley,et al.  Applying the Concept of Revictimization: Using Burglars' Behaviour to Predict Houses at Risk of Future Victimization , 2003 .

[10]  Brian N. Smith,et al.  Social Network Analysis , 2007 .

[11]  Nicholas J. Pioch,et al.  POLESTAR: collaborative knowledge management and sensemaking tools for intelligence analysts , 2006, CIKM '06.

[12]  Fatih Özgül,et al.  Mining for offender group detection and story of a police operation , 2007, AusDM.

[13]  Donald E. Brown,et al.  An outlier-based data association method for linking criminal incidents , 2006, Decis. Support Syst..

[14]  Richard Adderley,et al.  Data mining case study: modeling the behavior of offenders who commit serious sexual assaults , 2001, KDD '01.

[15]  G. Farrell,et al.  Criminology and security , 2006 .

[16]  Ken Pease,et al.  Prospective hot-spotting - The future of crime mapping? , 2004 .

[17]  Fatih Özgül,et al.  Comparing Two Models for Terrorist Group Detection: GDM or OGDM? , 2008, ISI Workshops.

[18]  K.C. Baumgartner,et al.  Bayesian Network Modeling of Offender Behavior for Criminal Profiling , 2005, Proceedings of the 44th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.

[19]  U. Brandes.  A faster algorithm for betweenness centrality , 2001 .

[20]  Donald E. Brown,et al.  Criminal incident prediction using a point-pattern-based density model , 2003 .

[21]  D. Edwards.  Data Mining: Concepts, Models, Methods, and Algorithms , 2003 .

[22]  V. Austin,et al.  Match'em: using fuzzy logic to profile criminals , 1997, Proceedings of 6th International Fuzzy Systems Conference.

[23]  Tom A. B. Snijders,et al.  Social Network Analysis , 2011, International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science.

[24]  R. Clarke,et al.  Modeling Offenders' Decisions: A Framework for Research and Policy , 1985, Crime and Justice.

[25]  Donald E. Brown,et al.  An Outlier-based Data Association Method for Linking Criminal Incidents , 2003, SDM.

[26]  Wilpen L. Gorr,et al.  Introduction to crime forecasting , 2003 .

[27]  Patricia L. Brantingham,et al.  Patterns in Crime , 1984 .

[28]  A. John.  MINING GRAPH DATA , 2022 .

[29]  Kamal Dahbur,et al.  Classification System for Serial Criminal Patterns , 2003, Artificial Intelligence and Law.

[30]  Clifford Stein,et al.  Introduction to Algorithms, 2nd edition. , 2001 .

[31]  Marcus Felson,et al.  ROUTINE ACTIVITIES AND CRIME PREVENTION IN THE DEVELOPINGMETROPOLIS , 1987 .

[32]  Marcus Felson,et al.  Simple indicators of crime by time of day , 2003 .

[33]  Donald Brown,et al.  Using a multi-agent model to predict both physical and cyber criminal activity , 2000, Smc 2000 conference proceedings. 2000 ieee international conference on systems, man and cybernetics. 'cybernetics evolving to systems, humans, organizations, and their complex interactions' (cat. no.0.