Evaluation of Cropland System Resilience to Climate Change at Municipal Scale Through Robustness, Adaptability, and Transformability: A Case Study of Hubei Province, China

A cropland system is one of the most sensitive socio-ecological systems to climate change, such as drought and flood. Facing frequent extreme weather events worldwide, how to improve cropland system resilience to climate change (CSRCC) and thus ensure food production has been concerned. Although a small number of studies have attempted to evaluate CSRCC through single or multiple indicators, few studies have considered the perspective of the three basic capacities of resilience (i.e., robustness, adaptability, and transformability), which could ignore the dynamic characteristics of cropland system resilience against shocks within a certain period. Therefore, this study first constructs an evaluation index system from the three capacities of system resilience. Then, taking Hubei province, China, as a case and comprehensively using the methods of Delphi, AHP, and TOPSIS to assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of CSRCC at the municipal scale from 2011 to 2018. On this basis, the regional disparities of CSRCC are analyzed by using the Theil coefficient. The results show that the CSRCC of Hubei province fluctuates on a downward trend, with the lowest in 2017 and the highest in 2013. Most municipalities have witnessed a pattern of fluctuated decline, except for a few ones in the plains, such as Wuhan and Jingmen. Generally, municipalities in the plains have greater scores, while some municipalities in the southern and eastern hilly regions show higher adaptability and transformability. In addition, adaptability contributes the least to the CSRCC at the municipal scale. At last, indicator selection against different research objects, influencing mechanism of CSRCC, and policy implications are discussed. This study is expected to provide a reference for the practice in sustainable management and utilization of cropland systems.

[1]  Xiaodi Qin,et al.  Rural infrastructure and poverty in China , 2022, PloS one.

[2]  J. Wątróbski,et al.  Sustainable cities and communities assessment using the DARIA-TOPSIS method , 2022, Sustainable Cities and Society.

[3]  Amin E. Bakhshipour,et al.  Designing coupled LID-GREI urban drainage systems: Resilience assessment and decision-making framework. , 2022, The Science of the total environment.

[4]  Ying Li,et al.  Benefits of Crop Rotation on Climate Resilience and Its Prospects in China , 2022, Agronomy.

[5]  E. Kruchina,et al.  Disasters and Resilient City , 2022, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science.

[6]  I. Luginaah,et al.  Credit access and perceived climate change resilience of smallholder farmers in semi-arid northern Ghana , 2022, Environment, Development and Sustainability.

[7]  Kabir Uddin,et al.  The relationships between economic growth and cropland changes in Bangladesh: An evidence based on annual land cover data , 2021 .

[8]  R. Posada-Gómez,et al.  An Agent-Based Model-Driven Decision Support System for Assessment of Agricultural Vulnerability of Sugarcane Facing Climatic Change , 2021, Mathematics.

[9]  Yue Huang,et al.  The complex ecological network’s resilience of the Wuhan metropolitan area , 2021 .

[10]  R. Seppelt,et al.  Crop diversity effects on temporal agricultural production stability across European regions , 2021, Regional Environmental Change.

[11]  Shicheng Li,et al.  Flood vulnerability and resilience assessment in China based on super-efficiency DEA and SBM-DEA methods , 2021 .

[12]  P. Midmore,et al.  Evidence of resilience capacity in farmers’ narratives: Accounts of robustness, adaptability and transformability across five different European farming systems , 2021, Journal of Rural Studies.

[13]  J. Padgett,et al.  Road transportation network hazard sustainability and resilience: correlations and comparisons , 2021, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering.

[14]  Andrej Ceglar,et al.  Analysing the resilience of agricultural production systems with ResiPy, the Python production resilience estimation package , 2021, SoftwareX.

[15]  T. Maraseni,et al.  Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems , 2021, Agricultural Systems.

[16]  M. Meuwissen,et al.  Adaptive Governance and Resilience Capacity of Farms: The Fit Between Farmers’ Decisions and Agricultural Policies , 2021, Frontiers in Environmental Science.

[17]  Usha Devi Gandhi,et al.  Identifying and classifying plant disease using resilient LF-CNN , 2021, Ecol. Informatics.

[18]  L. Zaibet,et al.  Assessing and building climate change resilience of farming systems in Tunisian semi-arid areas , 2021, Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

[19]  Chunjie Wang,et al.  Planular-vertical distribution and pollution characteristics of cropland soil Hg and the estimated soil-air exchange fluxes of gaseous Hg over croplands in northern China. , 2021, Environmental research.

[20]  Shili Guo,et al.  Livelihood resilience and strategies of rural residents of earthquake-threatened areas in Sichuan Province, China , 2021, Natural Hazards.

[21]  X. Lyu,et al.  Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Influence Mechanism of Cultivated Land System Resilience: Case from China , 2021 .

[22]  Xin Huang,et al.  The 30 m annual land cover dataset and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019 , 2021, Earth System Science Data.

[23]  S. Stępień,et al.  Socio-Economic Determinants of Small Family Farms’ Resilience in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries , 2020, Sustainability.

[24]  E. Noe,et al.  Responding to change: Farming system resilience in a liberalized and volatile European dairy market , 2020, Land Use Policy.

[25]  Muhammad Imran Khan,et al.  Spatial-temporal characteristics analysis of water resource system resilience in irrigation areas based on a support vector machine model optimized by the modified gray wolf algorithm , 2020 .

[26]  Safieh Javadinejad,et al.  Analysis and Prioritization the Effective Factors on Increasing Farmers Resilience Under Climate Change and Drought , 2020, Agricultural Research.

[27]  K. Termeer,et al.  Does the Common Agricultural Policy enhance farming systems’ resilience? Applying the Resilience Assessment Tool (ResAT) to a farming system case study in the Netherlands , 2020 .

[28]  E. Bennett,et al.  A brighter future: Complementary goals of diversity and multifunctionality to build resilient agricultural landscapes , 2020 .

[29]  Yan-sui Liu,et al.  Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural eco-efficiency in China in recent 40 years , 2020, Land Use Policy.

[30]  L. Ortolano,et al.  When floods hit the road: Resilience to flood-related traffic disruption in the San Francisco Bay Area and beyond , 2020, Science Advances.

[31]  F. Dentener,et al.  Estimating resilience of crop production systems: From theory to practice , 2020, The Science of the total environment.

[32]  B. Govaerts,et al.  Scaling agricultural mechanization services in smallholder farming systems: Case studies from sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America , 2020, Agricultural systems.

[33]  Ziyang Zhao,et al.  Effects of urbanization on food-energy-water systems in mega-urban regions: a case study of the Bohai MUR, China , 2020, Environmental Research Letters.

[34]  Markus A. Meyer.  The role of resilience in food system studies in low- and middle-income countries , 2020 .

[35]  F. Galiana,et al.  Agricultural abandonment and resilience in a Mediterranean periurban traditional agroecosystem: a landscape approach , 2020 .

[36]  W. Xie,et al.  Changes of Population, Built-up Land, and Cropland Exposure to Natural Hazards in China from 1995 to 2015 , 2019, International Journal of Disaster Risk Science.

[37]  J. Bush,et al.  Building urban resilience with nature-based solutions: How can urban planning contribute? , 2019, Cities.

[38]  Marc Vuillet,et al.  Mapping urban resilience to disasters – A review , 2019, Sustainable Cities and Society.

[39]  S. Severini,et al.  A framework to assess the resilience of farming systems , 2019, Agricultural Systems.

[40]  Temgoua Lucie Félicité,et al.  Enhancement of resilience to climate variability and change through agroforestry practices in smallholder farming systems in Cameroon , 2019, Agroforestry Systems.

[41]  Petra Döll,et al.  Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems , 2019, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

[42]  Yue Cao,et al.  How the trade barrier changes environmental costs of agricultural production: An implication derived from China's demand for soybean caused by the US-China trade war , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[43]  Faqi Wu,et al.  Applicability of biochar for limiting interrill erosion and organic carbon export of sloping cropland in a semi-arid area of China , 2019, Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment.

[44]  Ruixiang Zhu,et al.  Study on Factors Affecting the Agricultural Mechanization Level in China Based on Structural Equation Modeling , 2018, Sustainability.

[45]  B. Kiteme,et al.  Operationalizing food system resilience: An indicator-based assessment in agroindustrial, smallholder farming, and agroecological contexts in Bolivia and Kenya , 2018, Land Use Policy.

[46]  P. Bombi.  Potential impacts of climate change on Welwitschia mirabilis populations in the Namib Desert, southern Africa , 2018, Journal of Arid Land.

[47]  Jian Wu,et al.  The Sustainability of Agricultural Development in China: The Agriculture–Environment Nexus , 2018, Sustainability.

[48]  D. Solomatine,et al.  Semi-seasonal groundwater forecast using multiple data-driven models in an irrigated cropland , 2018 .

[49]  D. Tuo,et al.  Relative contributions of wind and water erosion to total soil loss and its effect on soil properties in sloping croplands of the Chinese Loess Plateau. , 2018, The Science of the total environment.

[50]  N. Gaur,et al.  Pests of Soybean , 2018 .

[51]  R. Ray,et al.  Effects of Drought on Crop Production and Cropping Areas in Texas , 2018 .

[52]  M. Kummu,et al.  Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations , 2018, Nature Communications.

[53]  Yuzhe Wu,et al.  Cultivated land protection policies in China facing 2030: Dynamic balance system versus basic farmland zoning , 2017 .

[54]  Wei Song,et al.  Review of the evolution of cultivated land protection policies in the period following China’s reform and liberalization , 2017 .

[55]  S. Vermeulen,et al.  The resilience of integrated agricultural systems to climate change , 2017 .

[56]  J. Knox,et al.  Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity , 2017, Regional Environmental Change.

[57]  J. Tambo.  Adaptation and resilience to climate change and variability in north-east Ghana , 2016 .

[58]  Christian Huyghe,et al.  Stability, robustness, vulnerability and resilience of agricultural systems. A review , 2016, Agronomy for Sustainable Development.

[59]  B. Reyers,et al.  Piloting a social-ecological index for measuring flood resilience: A composite index approach , 2016 .

[60]  Li Manchun,et al.  Farmland protection policies and rapid urbanization in China: A case study for Changzhou City , 2015 .

[61]  Birgit Kopainsky,et al.  Food system resilience: Defining the concept , 2015 .

[62]  P. Birthal,et al.  Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems , 2015 .

[63]  T. S. Amjath-Babu,et al.  Influence of livelihood resources on adaptive strategies to enhance climatic resilience of farm households in Morogoro, Tanzania: an indicator-based analysis , 2015, Regional Environmental Change.

[64]  C. Nicholls,et al.  Agroecology and the design of climate change-resilient farming systems , 2015, Agronomy for Sustainable Development.

[65]  T. Kuemmerle,et al.  Exploring the effects of drastic institutional and socio-economic changes on land system dynamics in Germany between 1883 and 2007 , 2014, Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions.

[66]  Solomon Hsiang,et al.  Nber Working Paper Series the Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-run Economic Growth: Evidence from 6,700 Cyclones the Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-run Economic Growth: Evidence from 6,700 Cyclones , 2022 .

[67]  Myles Oelofse,et al.  An Indicator Framework for Assessing Agroecosystem Resilience , 2012 .

[68]  James W. Altschuld,et al.  Analysis and prioritization , 2010 .

[69]  J. Chavas,et al.  Rainfall Shocks, Resilience, and the Effects of Crop Biodiversity on Agroecosystem Productivity , 2008, Land Economics.

[70]  R. Hobbs,et al.  Resilience, Adaptive Capacity, and the “Lock-in Trap” of the Western Australian Agricultural Region , 2004 .

[71]  Rebecka Milestad,et al.  Building Farm Resilience: The Prospects and Challenges of Organic Farming , 2003 .

[72]  C. S. Holling.  Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems , 2001, Ecosystems.