THE IMPACT OF NEW CHURCH DEVELOPMENT ON

This paper examines the role of new churches in the growth of the Southern Baptist Convention. It was found that newer churches are more likely to grow than are older churches, and that the relationship holds even when controlling for size of church and church setting. Additional findings indicate that new churches contribute about one quarter of the growth of the denomination and that the effects of differing rates of new church development are cumulative overtime. Starting no new churches would not lead to decline in the Southern Baptist Convention over the next 20 years, but it would cut the rate of growth in half It is also suggested that the membership declines experienced by mainline denominations over the past 20 years are at least partially due to steep drops in the number of new churches started annually. Efforts to understand denominational growth and decline should look at the mundane organizational activity which produces growth, as well as the theological, cultural and demographic factors which have affected American denominations during the last several decades. One of the primary goals of all evangelical Christian denominations is growth. Even though lack of growth may not be seen as failure, growth is universally interpreted as success. It might be added that the goal of growth is characteristic of nearly all organizations, not just churches. Most of the literature in the area of church growth has focused on the growth of individual congregations and the characteristics which make some churches grow faster than others. In marketing terms, the question has been why one retail unit attracts more customers than another. A related issue, but one which has received scant attention, has been the opening of new retail units. To what extent are new churches a source of denominational growth? Denominations could expand solely through the growth of individual churches, but they are unlikely to do so for long. Few churches grow beyond 1,000 members and all denominations suffer attrition as entire congregations die, merge, or drop out. Because of the limited growth potential of existing churches and the inevitable loss of some, it is generally assumed that new churches can be a source of denominational growth-but no one has demonstrated how much. It is also assumed that new churches tend to grow faster than older congregations-but no one has shown to what extent. This paper looks at new churches in the Southern Baptist Convention in order to discover their importance to the growth of this denomination. Specifically, its purpose is to determine: (1) to what extent newer churches grow faster than older churches; (2) to what extent the relationship of church age to church growth is due to intervening factors; (3) the amount of growth in the Southern Baptist Convention which is due to the addition of new churches; and (4) the hypothetical long term effects on the SBC of adding no new churches.