Protein side-chain packing problem: is there still room for improvement?

The protein side-chain packing problem (PSCPP) is an important subproblem of both protein structure prediction and protein design. During the past two decades, a large number of methods have been proposed to tackle this problem. These methods consist of three main components: a rotamer library, a scoring function and a search strategy. The average overall accuracy level obtained by these methods is approximately 87%. Whether a better accuracy level could be achieved remains to be answered. To address this question, we calculated the maximum accuracy level attainable using a simple rotamer library, independently of the energy function or the search method. Using 2883 different structures from the Protein Data Bank, we compared this accuracy level with the accuracy level of five state-of-the-art methods. These comparisons indicated that, for buried residues in the protein, we are already close to the best possible accuracy results. In addition, for exposed residues, we found that a significant gap exists between the possible improvement and the maximum accuracy level achievable with current methods. After determining that an improvement is possible, the next step is to understand what limitations are preventing us from obtaining such an improvement. Previous works on protein structure prediction and protein design have shown that scoring function inaccuracies may represent the main obstacle to achieving better results for these problems. To show that the same is true for the PSCPP, we evaluated the quality of two scoring functions used by some state-of-the-art algorithms. Our results indicate that neither of these scoring functions can guide the search method correctly, thereby reinforcing the idea that efforts to solve the PSCPP must also focus on developing better scoring functions.