A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This contribution reviews the different (mathematical) model formulations underlying these traffic simulation models used in evacuation studies and the behavioural assumptions that are made. The appropriateness of these behavioural assumptions is elaborated on in light of the current consensus on evacuation travel behaviour, based on the view from the social sciences as well as empirical studies on evacuation behaviour. The focus lies on how travellers’ decisions are predicted through simulation regarding the choice to evacuate, departure time choice, destination choice, and route choice. For the evacuation participation and departure time choice we argue in favour of the simultaneous approach to dynamic evacuation demand prediction using the repeated binary logit model. For the destination choice we show how further research is needed to generalize the current preliminary findings on the location-type specific destination choice models. For the evacuation route choice we argue in favour of hybrid route choice models that enable both following instructed routes and en-route switches. Within each of these discussions, we point at current limitations and make corresponding suggestions on promising future research directions.

[1]  Michael Pidd,et al.  CEMPS: a configurable evacuation management and planning system—a progress report , 1993, WSC '93.

[2]  S. Travis Waller,et al.  A dynamic evacuation network optimization problem with lane reversal and crossing elimination strategies , 2010 .

[3]  Bin Ran,et al.  Developing a Dynamic Traffic Management Modeling Framework for Hurricane Evacuation , 2000 .

[4]  E. Baker,et al.  Modeling the Hurricane Evacuation Response Curve , 2007 .

[5]  Warren B. Powell,et al.  A transportation network evacuation model , 1982 .

[6]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  EVAQ: A New Analytical Model for Voluntary and Mandatory Evacuation Strategies on Time-varying Networks , 2008, 2008 11th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[7]  D C Lewis.  SEPTEMBER'S GREAT ESCAPE : NEW INFORMATION SYSTEM HELPS MANAGE HURRICANE EVACUATIONS , 2001 .

[8]  David T. Herbert,et al.  The Emergency Evacuation of Cities: A Cross-National Historical and Geographical Study , 1991 .

[9]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Hybrid Route Choice Modeling in Dynamic Traffic Assignment , 2009 .

[10]  Bruce N. Eimer,et al.  Panic: Origins, Insight, and Treatment. L. J. Schmidt and B. Warner, Editors. Berkeley, CA: North Atlantic Books. (2002). 425 Pages. $19.95 (Paper Back) , 2004 .

[11]  J G Wardrop,et al.  Discussion: some theoretical aspects of road traffic research , 1952 .

[12]  Lingyun Zhu,et al.  Evacuation Model and Application for Emergency Events , 2009, 2009 Fourth International Conference on Computer Sciences and Convergence Information Technology.

[13]  Michael K. Lindell,et al.  Critical Behavioral Assumptions in Evacuation Time Estimate Analysis for Private Vehicles: Examples from Hurricane Research and Planning , 2007 .

[14]  Norman I. Badler,et al.  Modeling Crowd and Trained Leader Behavior during Building Evacuation , 2006, IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications.

[15]  A. Beck,et al.  Human and pet-related risk factors for household evacuation failure during a natural disaster. , 2001, American journal of epidemiology.

[16]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Optimization of Evacuation Measures Under Uncertainty , 2010 .

[17]  Chester G. Wilmot,et al.  Comparison of Alternative Trip Generation Models for Hurricane Evacuation , 2004 .

[18]  John Collura,et al.  Scenario-Based Analysis of Transportation Impacts in Case of Dam Failure Flood Evacuation in Franklin County, Massachusetts , 2010 .

[19]  Guangxiang Cheng,et al.  Time-Dependent Travel Cost Impact on Hurricane Evacuation Destination Choice Models , 2009 .

[20]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Evacuation modeling including traveler information and compliance behavior , 2010 .

[21]  J. Apt,et al.  Planning for natural disasters in a stochastic world , 2006 .

[22]  Reginald G. Golledge,et al.  An assessment of activity-based modeling and simulation for applications in operational studies, disaster preparedness, and homeland security , 2009 .

[23]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Modelling Traveller Behaviour under Emergency Evacuation Conditions , 2011, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research.

[24]  Hong Zheng,et al.  Modeling and Solving Optimal Evacuation Destination-Route-Flow-Staging Problem for No-Notice Extreme Events , 2006 .

[25]  John Bohannon.  Directing the Herd: Crowds and the Science of Evacuation , 2005, Science.

[26]  Nagui M. Rouphail,et al.  Simulation and Analysis of Freeway Lane Reversal for Coastal Hurricane Evacuation , 2007 .

[27]  Chester G. Wilmot,et al.  Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Hurricane Evacuation , 2004 .

[28]  Hubert Klüpfel,et al.  Evacuation Dynamics: Empirical Results, Modeling and Applications , 2009, Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science.

[29]  Antoine G. Hobeika,et al.  A LOCATION-ALLOCATION MODEL AND ALGORITHM FOR EVACUATION PLANNING UNDER HURRICANE/FLOOD CONDITIONS , 1991 .

[30]  Wolfgang Haider,et al.  Post‐flood assessment of emergency evacuation policies in the Red River basin, Southern Manitoba , 2008 .

[31]  S. Cutter,et al.  Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders , 1998 .

[32]  Warren B. Powell,et al.  NETVAC 1: A Transportation Network Evacuation Model , 1980 .

[33]  K. V. Zuilekom,et al.  A Decision Support System for Preventive Evacuation of People , 2005 .

[34]  F. Benjamin Zhan,et al.  Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation: relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies , 2008, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[35]  Srinivas Peeta,et al.  A Hybrid Model for Driver Route Choice Incorporating En-Route Attributes and Real-Time Information Effects , 2003 .

[36]  Thomas J. Cova,et al.  A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing , 2003 .

[37]  Colby Brown,et al.  Development of a Strategic Hurricane Evacuation–Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model for the Houston, Texas, Region , 2009 .

[38]  R. Blendon,et al.  Experiences of hurricane Katrina evacuees in Houston shelters: implications for future planning. , 2006, American journal of public health.

[39]  Huizhao Tu,et al.  Evacuation plan of the city of almere: Simulating the impact of driving behavior on evacuation clearance time , 2010 .

[40]  Benigno E. Aguirre,et al.  Commentary on "Understanding Mass Panic and Other Collective Responses to Threat and Disaster" Emergency Evacuations, Panic, and Social Psychology , 2005 .

[41]  Devajyoti Deka,et al.  Using Hypothetical Disaster Scenarios to Predict Evacuation Behavioral Response , 2010 .

[42]  Anders Hansson,et al.  Emergency relocation: Population response model to disasters , 2009, 2009 IEEE Conference on Technologies for Homeland Security.

[43]  J. G. Wardrop,et al.  Some Theoretical Aspects of Road Traffic Research , 1952 .

[44]  Devajyoti Deka,et al.  Analyzing Evacuation Behavior of Transportation-Disadvantaged Populations in Northern New Jersey , 2010 .

[45]  William H. Hooke.  U.S. PARTICIPATION IN INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION , 2000 .

[46]  Nicole Dash,et al.  Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys , 2000 .

[47]  Pamela Murray-Tuite,et al.  Model of Household Trip-Chain Sequencing in Emergency Evacuation , 2003 .

[48]  Ian Donald.  Engineering for crowd safety: edited by R.A. Smith and J.F. Dickie. Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, 1993, pp. 428 , 1995 .

[49]  Robert A. Meyers,et al.  Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science , 2009 .

[50]  Eric Butterworth,et al.  Issues in Natural Disaster Management: Community Response to the Threat of Tropical Cyclones in Australia , 1993 .

[51]  Haoqiang Fu,et al.  Static Versus Dynamic and Aggregate Versus Disaggregate: A Comparison Between Practice and Research in Hurricane Evacuation Travel Demand Modeling , 2007 .

[52]  B. Cornwell.  Bonded Fatalities: Relational and Ecological Dimensions of a Fire Evacuation , 2003 .

[53]  Xuegang Ban,et al.  A Cell-Based Many-to-One Dynamic System Optimal Model and Its Heuristic Solution Method for Emergency Evacuation , 2007 .

[54]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Impact of Variations in Travel Demand and Network Supply Factors for Evacuation Studies , 2010 .

[55]  Richard Wills.  Human instincts, everyday life, and the brain , 1998 .

[56]  P. Hancock.  Human Factors Psychology , 1987 .

[57]  Pamela Murray-Tuite.  Perspectives for Network Management in Response to Unplanned Disruptions , 2007 .

[58]  Dung-Ying Lin,et al.  Evacuation Planning Using the Integrated System of Activity-Based Modeling and Dynamic Traffic Assignment , 2009 .

[59]  R. Woodworth.  Dynamics of behavior , 1958 .

[60]  T Plowman,et al.  DANGER! HURRICANE COMING , 2001 .

[61]  A. Mawson.  Understanding Mass Panic and Other Collective Responses to Threat and Disaster , 2005, Psychiatry.

[62]  Pamela M. Murray-Tuite,et al.  Transportation Network Evacuation Planning with Household Activity Interactions , 2004 .

[63]  Chester G. Wilmot,et al.  Methodology to Establish Hurricane Evacuation Zones , 2005 .

[64]  Heng Wei,et al.  Integrating Traffic Simulation Models with Evacuation Planning System in a GIS Environment , 2006, 2006 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference.

[65]  Karl E Wunderlich,et al.  Structuring modeling and simulation analysis for evacuation planning and operations. , 2009 .

[66]  Serge P. Hoogendoorn,et al.  Optimizing evacuation instructions while anticipating traveler compliance behavior , 2010, 13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[67]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  A methodology for estimating emergency evacuation times , 1986 .

[68]  Earl J. Baker,et al.  Hurricane Evacuation Behavior , 1991, International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters.

[69]  Kaan Özbay,et al.  Analysis of Network-Wide Impacts of Behavioral Response Curves for Evacuation Conditions , 2006, 2006 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference.

[70]  Seungho Lee,et al.  Crowd Simulation for Emergency Response using BDI Agent Based on Virtual Reality , 2006, Proceedings of the 2006 Winter Simulation Conference.

[71]  Changkyun Kim,et al.  Comparison of traffic assignments in evacuation modeling , 1998 .

[72]  T. Drabek,et al.  Human systems in extreme environments : a sociological perspective , 1977 .

[73]  Guangxiang Cheng.  Friction Factor Function Calibration for Hurricane Evacuation Trip Distribution , 2007 .

[74]  Nicole Dash,et al.  Evacuation Decision Making and Behavioral Responses: Individual and Household , 2007 .

[75]  E. Baker,et al.  Destination Choice Model for Hurricane Evacuation , 2008 .

[76]  Yaser E. Hawas.  Development and Calibration of Route Choice Utility Models: Neuro-Fuzzy Approach , 2004 .

[77]  Hussein Dia,et al.  Dynamics of drivers' route choice decisions under advanced traveller information systems , 2001 .

[78]  Essam Radwan,et al.  Heuristic Priority Ranking of Emergency Evacuation Staging to Reduce Clearance Time , 2006 .

[79]  Bob Edwards,et al.  Heading for higher ground: factors affecting real and hypothetical hurricane evacuation behavior , 2000 .

[80]  E. Baker.  Public Response to Hurricane Probability Forecasts , 1995 .

[81]  Baher Abdulhai,et al.  Emergency evacuation planning as a network design problem: a critical review , 2009 .

[82]  Seong-Hee Kim,et al.  A framework for simulating human cognitive behavior and movement when predicting impacts of catastrophic events , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference, 2004..

[83]  A. Mohamed,et al.  Optimization approaches for macroscopic emergency evacuation planning: A survey , 2008, 2008 International Symposium on Information Technology.

[84]  A J GLASS,et al.  Psychological aspects of disaster. , 1959, Journal of the American Medical Association.

[85]  Srinivas Peeta,et al.  Planning for Evacuation : Insights from an Efficient Network Design Model , 2009 .

[86]  Gang-Len Chang,et al.  Two-Level Integrated Optimization System for Planning of Emergency Evacuation , 2006 .

[87]  Marjolein de Jong,et al.  The effects of information and evacuation plans on civilian response during the National Dutch flooding exercise ‘Waterproef’ , 2010 .

[88]  Sebastiaan N. Jonkman,et al.  Loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment; theory and applications , 2007 .

[89]  Yi-Chang Chiu,et al.  Approach to Modeling Demand and Supply for a Short-Notice Evacuation , 2009 .

[90]  Haoqiang Fu,et al.  Development of dynamic travel demand models for hurricane evacuation , 2004 .

[91]  Brian Wolshon,et al.  Review of Policies and Practices for Hurricane Evacuation. II: Traffic Operations, Management, and Control , 2005 .

[92]  Michael K. Lindell.  EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model , 2008 .

[93]  Jonathan D. Sime.  Designing for people or ball-bearings? , 1985 .

[94]  Alan D. Baddeley.  Selective attention and performance in dangerous environments. , 1972 .

[95]  Yang Wen,et al.  Simulation-Based Framework for Transportation Network Management in Emergencies , 2008 .

[96]  Mohamed Abdel-Aty,et al.  Design of an Artificial Simulator for Analyzing Route Choice Behavior in the Presence of Information System , 1995 .

[97]  Asad J. Khattak,et al.  Route Change Decision Making by Hurricane Evacuees Facing Congestion , 2010 .

[98]  S. Cutter,et al.  Public orders and personal opinions: household strategies for hurricane risk assessment , 2000 .

[99]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Dynamic Network Traffic Assignment and Simulation Methodology for Advanced System Management Applications , 2001 .

[100]  Francis C. McMichael,et al.  Safety goals for high‐hazard dams: Are dams too safe? , 1990 .

[101]  Susan L. Cutter,et al.  Emerging Hurricane Evacuation Issues: Hurricane Floyd and South Carolina , 2002 .

[102]  Ajay K. Rathi,et al.  Simulation of Traffic Flow During Emergency Evacuations: a Microcomputer Based Modeling System , 1993, Proceedings of 1993 Winter Simulation Conference - (WSC '93).

[103]  Kenzo Toki,et al.  INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION , 1992 .

[104]  Yi-Chang Chiu,et al.  Modeling of Evacuation and Background Traffic for Optimal Zone-Based Vehicle Evacuation Strategy , 2010 .

[105]  Jeffrey L. Adler,et al.  A conflict model and interactive simulator (FASTCARS) for predicting enroute driver behavior in response to real-time traffic condition information , 1993 .

[106]  John M. Rose,et al.  Understanding household evacuation decisions using a stated choice survey: case study of bush fires , 2005 .

[107]  Brian Wolshon,et al.  Review of Policies and Practices for Hurricane Evacuation. I: Transportation Planning, Preparedness, and Response , 2005 .

[108]  Fang Yuan,et al.  Improving Evacuation Planning with Sensible Measure of Effectiveness Choices , 2009 .

[109]  T. Cova,et al.  Microsimulation of Neighborhood Evacuations in the Urban–Wildland Interface , 2002 .

[110]  Michael K. Lindell,et al.  Household Decision Making and Evacuation in Response to Hurricane Lili , 2005 .

[111]  Benigno E Aguirre,et al.  Emergency Evacuations, Panic, and Social Psychology , 2005, Psychiatry.

[112]  Yohei Murakami,et al.  Multi-agent simulation for crisis management , 2002, Proceedings. IEEE Workshop on Knowledge Media Networking.

[113]  Fang Yuan,et al.  Proposed Framework for Simultaneous Optimization of Evacuation Traffic Destination and Route Assignment , 2006 .

[114]  Ross T. Newkirk.  The Increasing Cost of Disasters in Developed Countries: A Challenge to Local Planning and Government , 2001 .

[115]  H. J. Van Zuylen,et al.  Rerouting behaviour of travellers under exceptional traffic conditions: An empirical analysis of route choice , 2010 .

[116]  Yi-Chang Chiu,et al.  Online Behavior-Robust Feedback Information Routing Strategy for Mass Evacuation , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[117]  Baruch Fischhoff,et al.  Predicting Emergency Evacuation and Sheltering Behavior: A Structured Analytical Approach , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[118]  N. Badler,et al.  Crowd simulation incorporating agent psychological models, roles and communication , 2005 .

[119]  J S TYHURST,et al.  Individual reactions to community disaster. The natural history of psychiatric phenomena. , 1951, The American journal of psychiatry.