THE POLICY DELPHI: PURPOSE, STRUCTURE, AND APPLICATION

This paper has two major purposes. First, it presents argument and evidence related to the suitability of using Policy Delphi in the formulation of national or federal water policy. Much of the associated discussion is organized in terms of a comparison of Delphi purpose and structure with those of other Idea Generating Strategies (IGSs). Second, it presents argument and evidence related to the value of expert opinion, and its role as an integral component of any Policy Delphi application. Associated discussion focuses on the identification and declaration of expert sampling criteria in the context of water and other policy. In addition, a recommendation is presented to consultants, managers, stategists, and others who must regularly synthesize divergent opinion and evidence and bring forth policy statements. The conclusions indicate that a Policy Delphi has no structural elements that would limit its application to water policy development or other environmental management problems that demand definition.

[1]  Joseph F. Coates,et al.  In defense of Delphi: : A review of Delphi assessment, expert opinion, forecasting, and group process by H. Sackman☆ , 1975 .

[2]  M. Bardecki,et al.  Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective , 1984 .

[3]  Brian W. Mar,et al.  The Delphi technique in environmental assessment. I: Implementation and effectiveness , 1985 .

[4]  David Ley,et al.  The delphi technique in urban forecasting , 1975 .

[5]  Fred L. Fry.  The end of affirmative action , 1980 .

[6]  Robert C. Judd,et al.  Use of Delphi methods in higher education , 1972 .

[7]  James Cicarelli,et al.  The future of economics , 1984 .

[8]  B. Mcgaw,et al.  Delphi in Education: Review and Assessment , 1976 .

[9]  I. Jillson,et al.  Developing guidelines for the Delphi method , 1975 .

[10]  Vaclav Smil,et al.  A Delphi forecast , 1977 .

[11]  Thomas Dietz,et al.  Methods for analyzing data from Delphi panels: Some evidence from a forecasting study , 1987 .

[12]  D. Scheele,et al.  Consumerism comes to Delphi: Comments on Delphi assessment, expert opinion, forecasting, and group process by H. Sackman☆ , 1975 .

[13]  B. Marley-Clark,et al.  The Delphi method and urbanization , 1974 .

[14]  Peeter Kruus.  Utilization of Delphi methods for University planning , 1983 .

[15]  Raghu Naath Singg,et al.  Use of Delphi Methodology to Assess Goals and Social Impacts of a Watershed Project , 1979 .

[16]  John F. Preble,et al.  Public sector use of the Delphi technique , 1983 .

[17]  Murray Turoff,et al.  The design of a policy Delphi , 1970 .

[18]  Wilfred G. Rieger,et al.  Directions in Delphi developments: Dissertations and their quality , 1986 .

[19]  Juri Pill,et al.  The Delphi method: Substance, context, a critique and an annotated bibliography , 1971 .

[21]  Robert E. England,et al.  URBAN PLANNING: USING A DELPHI AS A DECISION-MAKING AID , 1979 .

[22]  Don Kennington,et al.  Long range planning for public libraries—A Delphi study , 1977 .

[23]  K. Hill,et al.  The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique , 1975 .

[24]  Jerry B. Schneider,et al.  The policy Delphi: A regional planning application , 1971 .

[25]  Pratap K.J. Mohapatra,et al.  Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry , 1984 .

[26]  Wayne K. Talley,et al.  Individual stability in Delphi studies , 1980 .

[27]  Brian W. Mar,et al.  The Delphi technique in environmental assessment. II: Consensus on critical issues in environmental monitoring program design , 1985 .

[28]  Peter G. Goldschmidt,et al.  Scientific inquiry or political critique?: Remarks on Delphi assessment, expert opinion, forecasting, and group process by H. Sackman , 1975 .

[29]  Lavada A. Adams,et al.  Delphi forecasting: Future issues in grievance arbitration , 1980 .

[30]  W. E. Riggs,et al.  The Delphi technique: An experimental evaluation , 1983 .

[31]  Joseph P. Martino.  Book reviewLong-range forecasting: From crystal ball to computer: J. Scott Armstrong, Wiley-Interscience, New York, 1978 , 1980 .