论文信息 - Reply to Szuwalski: Policies robust to uncertainty in causes of productivity changes are needed

Reply to Szuwalski: Policies robust to uncertainty in causes of productivity changes are needed

Szuwalski (1) has greatly misinterpreted the principal message of our report (2). We did not claim you could reliably estimate regime shifts for individual stocks. Table 2 in our report (2) clearly shows that the chance of improper assignment of the hypothesis is very high, even when you have a long time-series of data in hand. At any point in time, managers will rarely know if observed changes in productivity are a result of regime changes, changes in biomass, or random.

Ray Hilborn | Katyana A Vert-pre | Ricardo O Amoroso | Olaf P Jensen

[1] Cody Szuwalski. Production is a poor metric for identifying regime-like behavior in marine stocks , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[2] Cóilín Minto,et al. Examining the knowledge base and status of commercially exploited marine species with the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database , 2012 .

[3] R. Hilborn,et al. Frequency and intensity of productivity regime shifts in marine fish stocks , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.