The Historical Growth of Statistical Significance Testing in Psychology--and Its Future Prospects.

The historical growth in the popularity of statistical significance testing is examined using a random sample of annual data from 12 American Psychological Association (APA) journals. The results replicate and extend the findings of Hubbard, Parsa, and Luthy, who used data from only the Journal of Applied Psychology. The results also confirm Gigerenzer and Murray's allegation that an inference revolution occurred in psychology between 1940 and 1955. An assessment of the future prospects for statistical significance testing is offered. It is concluded that replication with extension research, and its connections with meta-analysis, is a better vehicle for developing a cumulative knowledge base in the discipline than statistical significance testing. It is conceded, however, that statistical significance testing is likely here to stay.