Forecasting Time Series Water Levels on Mekong River Using Machine Learning Models

Forecasting water levels on Mekong river is an important problem needed to be studied for flood warning. In this paper, we investigate the application to forecasting of daily water levels at Thakhek station on Mekong river using machine learning models such as LASSO, Random Forests and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Experimental results showed that SVR was able to achieve feasible results, the mean absolute error of SVR is 0.486(m) while the acceptable error of a flood forecast model required by the Mekong River Commission is between 0.5(m) and 0.75(m).

[1]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[2]  Thomas G. Dietterich.  An Experimental Comparison of Three Methods for Constructing Ensembles of Decision Trees: Bagging, Boosting, and Randomization , 2000, Machine Learning.

[3]  Joshua Zhexue Huang,et al.  Two-level quantile regression forests for bias correction in range prediction , 2014, Machine Learning.

[4]  Leo Breiman,et al.  Random Forests , 2001, Machine Learning.

[5]  R. Tibshirani.  Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso , 1996 .

[6]  Yali Amit,et al.  Shape Quantization and Recognition with Randomized Trees , 1997, Neural Computation.

[7]  F. Savi,et al.  Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome , 2006 .

[8]  Corinna Cortes,et al.  Support-Vector Networks , 1995, Machine Learning.

[9]  Tin Kam Ho,et al.  The Random Subspace Method for Constructing Decision Forests , 1998, IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell..

[10]  Leo Breiman,et al.  Classification and Regression Trees , 1984 .

[11]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  A tutorial on support vector regression , 2004, Stat. Comput..

[12]  Qingyao Wu,et al.  Genome-wide association data classification and SNPs selection using two-stage quality-based Random Forests , 2015, BMC Genomics.

[13]  Leo Breiman,et al.  Bagging Predictors , 1996, Machine Learning.

[14]  Wei-Yin Loh,et al.  Classification and regression trees , 2011, WIREs Data Mining Knowl. Discov..