Quantifying Resilience and Uncertainty in Coastal Flooding Events: Framework for Assessing Urban Vulnerability

AbstractFlood resilience is a desirable state of natural and built environments in dealing with hazards such as extreme rainfalls, storm surges, and hurricanes. Here, resilience means the capacity to reach an acceptable level of functionality during and after a flood. Observations of the recent history of flood disasters in New Orleans and New York City (NYC) have suggested the necessity of quantifying resilience in these regions utilizing a floodplain’s vulnerability assessment platform. Once a meaningful and well-recognized method is developed, then resources can be allocated to increase resiliency. In this study, redundancy, resourcefulness, robustness, and rapidity metrics based on socioeconomic, manmade, and natural conditions are developed to quantify coastal resilience. Exposure and susceptibility are also defined and evaluated for quantifying vulnerability. The proposed evaluation method, which is based on the linear combination of the developed metrics, uses a multicriteria decision making techni...

[1]  D. Fernández,et al.  Urban flood hazard zoning in Tucumán Province, Argentina, using GIS and multicriteria decision analysis , 2010 .

[2]  Lindsey R. Barnes,et al.  A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters , 2008 .

[3]  アジア防災センター,et al.  Asian conference on disaster reduction 2003 : Living with risk : towards disaster resilient societies : contribution to the review of the Yokohama strategy and plan of action : 15-17 January 2003 Kobe, Japan , 2003 .

[4]  Yves De Smet,et al.  D-Sight: A New Decision Making Software to Address Multi-Criteria Problems , 2012, Int. J. Decis. Support Syst. Technol..

[5]  Amy E. Frazier,et al.  Developing the 'PEOPLES' resilience framework for defining and measuring disaster resilience at the community scale , 2010 .

[6]  R. Costanza,et al.  Biodiversity loss: Scale and biodiversity in coastal and estuarine ecosystems , 1995 .

[7]  Siambabala Bernard Manyena,et al.  The concept of resilience revisited. , 2006, Disasters.

[8]  K. Tierney.  Conceptualizing and Measuring Organizational and Community Resilience: Lessons From The Emergency Response Following The September 11, 2001 Attack on The World Trade Center , 2003 .

[9]  Eun-Sung Chung,et al.  Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set , 2014, Expert Syst. Appl..

[10]  Bilal M Ayyub,et al.  Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition, Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making , 2014, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[11]  M. Pelling,et al.  Determinants of risk: Exposure and vulnerability , 2012 .

[12]  V. Gornitz.  Global coastal hazards from future sea level rise , 1991 .

[13]  Kevin E Lansey,et al.  Progress and recommendations for advancing performance-based sustainable and resilient infrastructure design , 2015 .

[14]  Young Do Kim,et al.  A sensitivity analysis approach of multi-attribute decision making technique to rank flood mitigation projects , 2013 .

[15]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Social-Ecological Resilience to Coastal Disasters , 2005, Science.

[16]  Mary C. Hill,et al.  Sensitivity analysis, calibration, and testing of a distributed hydrological model using error‐based weighting and one objective function , 2009 .

[17]  Petra Tschakert,et al.  From theory to practice: building more resilient communities in flood-prone areas , 2011 .

[18]  Marino Bonaiuto,et al.  Enhancing flood resilience through improved risk communications , 2012 .

[19]  L. Peeters,et al.  Robust global sensitivity analysis of a river management model , 2014 .

[20]  F. L. Dimet,et al.  Sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modeling: potential of variational methods , 2009 .

[21]  Ioana Popescu,et al.  Parametric and physically based modelling techniques for flood risk and vulnerability assessment: A comparison , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[22]  R. Kasperson,et al.  A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science , 2003, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[23]  Jaroslav Mysiak,et al.  Bringing flood resilience into practice: the FREEMAN project , 2011 .

[24]  Ni-Bin Chang,et al.  Combining GIS with fuzzy multicriteria decision-making for landfill siting in a fast-growing urban region. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.

[25]  Fikret Berkes,et al.  Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: lessons from resilience thinking , 2007 .

[26]  J. Andrew G. Cooper,et al.  A multi-scale coastal vulnerability index: A tool for coastal managers? , 2010 .

[27]  Nicolas G. Wright,et al.  A flood vulnerability index for coastal cities and its use in assessing climate change impacts , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[28]  C. S. Holling.  Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973 .

[29]  P. Kanciruk,et al.  Assessment of global coastal hazards from sea level rise , 1989 .

[30]  Michel Bruneau,et al.  A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities , 2003 .

[31]  K Hansson,et al.  A framework for evaluation of flood management strategies. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.

[32]  Katharine Vincent,et al.  Uncertainty in adaptive capacity , 2005 .

[33]  S. Cutter,et al.  Erosion Hazard Vulnerability of US Coastal Counties , 2005 .

[34]  D. Mileti.  Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States , 1999 .

[35]  N. Wright,et al.  Flood vulnerability indices at varying spatial scales. , 2009, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[36]  C. Rosenzweig,et al.  CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NEW YORK CITY'S WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM 1 , 2000 .

[37]  B. Smit,et al.  Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability , 2006 .

[38]  Paola Annoni,et al.  Sixth International Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output How to avoid a perfunctory sensitivity analysis , 2010 .

[39]  Robert J. Nicholls,et al.  Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept? , 2003 .

[40]  F. Klijn,et al.  Resilience strategies for flood risk management in the Netherlands , 2003 .

[41]  Richard M. Vogel,et al.  Adapting Urban Infrastructure to Climate Change: A Drainage Case Study , 2015 .

[42]  Kuei-Hsien Liao,et al.  A Theory on Urban Resilience to Floods—A Basis for Alternative Planning Practices , 2012 .

[43]  Stefano Tarantola,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: tools for GIS-based model implementation , 2001, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..