Confirmation and justification. A commentary on Shogenji’s measure
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So far no known measure of confirmation of a hypothesis by evidence has satisfied a minimal requirement concerning thresholds of acceptance. In contrast, Shogenji’s new measure of justification (Shogenji, Synthese, this number 2009) does the trick. As we show, it is ordinally equivalent to the most general measure which satisfies this requirement. We further demonstrate that this general measure resolves the problem of the irrelevant conjunction. Finally, we spell out some implications of the general measure for the Conjunction Effect; in particular we give an example in which the effect occurs in a larger domain, according to Shogenji justification, than Carnap’s measure of confirmation would have led one to expect.
[1] Tomoji Shogenji. The degree of epistemic justification and the conjunction fallacy , 2009, Synthese.
[2] Branden Fitelson,et al. Discussion: Re‐solving Irrelevant Conjunction with Probabilistic Independence* , 2004, Philosophy of Science.
[3] Jeanne Peijnenburg,et al. How to Confirm the Conjunction of Disconfirmed Hypotheses* , 2009, Philosophy of Science.
[4] J. Keynes. A Treatise on Probability. , 1923 .