Assessing the impact of stand-level harvests on the flammability of forest landscapes

The harvesting of forest stands can reduce landscape flammability by fragmenting fuel continuity in ways that make it difficult for fires to spread and by providing firefighters with fuel discontinuities they can use as anchor points for suppression operations. We describe a methodology for assessing the impact of harvesting designated forest stands on landscape flammability and expected losses. We combine assessments of the probability that fires will be ignited at any point on the landscape with probabilistic predictions concerning how long escaped fires will burn and how they will spread. Shortest path methods are used to identify critical paths that link potential ignition points with values at risk. We then rank stands with respect to their ability to disrupt those critical paths and thereby reduce landscape flammability and fire losses. We describe how we applied our methodology to a 12 964-ha forested area of boreal forest in the province of Alberta, Canada. Our results indicate that the crucial stands in our study area, those that have the most significant impact on landscape flammability and fire loss, tend to be those that are flammable and located on or close to critical paths that link areas where fires are most likely to occur with values at risk.

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