Outcomes and endpoints in trials of cancer treatment: the past, present, and future.

Cancer treatment should allow patients to live better or longer lives, and ideally, both. Trial endpoints should show clinically meaningful improvements in patient survival or quality of life. Alternative endpoints such as progression-free survival, disease-free survival, and objective response rate have been used to identify benefit earlier, but their true validity as surrogate endpoints is controversial. In this Review we discuss the measurement, assessment, and benefits and limitations of trial endpoints in use for cancer treatment. Many stakeholders are affected, including regulatory agencies, industry partners, clinicians, and most importantly, patients. In an accompanying Review, reflections from individual stakeholders are incorporated into a discussion of what the future holds for clinical trial endpoints and design.

[1]  M. Sormani,et al.  Objective response to chemotherapy as a potential surrogate end point of survival in metastatic breast cancer patients. , 2005, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[2]  E. Eisenhauer,et al.  Review of phase II trial designs used in studies of molecular targeted agents: outcomes and predictors of success in phase III. , 2008, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[3]  M. Piccart,et al.  Everolimus in postmenopausal hormone-receptor-positive advanced breast cancer. , 2012, The New England journal of medicine.

[4]  Eric P Tamm,et al.  CT evaluation of the response of gastrointestinal stromal tumors after imatinib mesylate treatment: a quantitative analysis correlated with FDG PET findings. , 2004, AJR. American journal of roentgenology.

[5]  J. Banchereau,et al.  Assessing oncologic benefit in clinical trials of immunotherapy agents. , 2010, Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

[6]  R. Wahl,et al.  FDG PET and risk-adapted therapy in Hodgkin's and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma , 2008, Current opinion in oncology.

[7]  M. Kochman Detection and Quantification of Mutations in the Plasma of Patients With Colorectal Tumors , 2006 .

[8]  Kevin Carroll,et al.  Gefitinib plus best supportive care in previously treated patients with refractory advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: results from a randomised, placebo-controlled, multicentre study (Iressa Survival Evaluation in Lung Cancer) , 2005, The Lancet.

[9]  R. Herrmann,et al.  Patient-reported outcomes of patients with advanced biliary tract cancers receiving gemcitabine plus capecitabine: a multicenter, phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research. , 2008, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[10]  F. Hirsch,et al.  Molecular predictors of outcome with gefitinib in a phase III placebo-controlled study in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. , 2006, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[11]  A. Fojo,et al.  Why RECIST works and why it should stay--counterpoint. , 2012, Cancer research.

[12]  D. Dearnaley,et al.  Characterization of ERG, AR and PTEN gene status in circulating tumor cells from patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer. , 2009, Cancer research.

[13]  J. Cappelleri,et al.  Review of meta-analyses evaluating surrogate endpoints for overall survival in oncology , 2012, OncoTargets and therapy.

[14]  Leon W.M.M. Terstappen,et al.  Circulating Tumor Cells versus Imaging—Predicting Overall Survival in Metastatic Breast Cancer , 2006, Clinical Cancer Research.

[15]  M Van Glabbeke,et al.  New guidelines to evaluate the response to treatment in solid tumors. European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer, National Cancer Institute of the United States, National Cancer Institute of Canada. , 2000, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[16]  Kristine R Broglio,et al.  Detecting an overall survival benefit that is derived from progression-free survival. , 2009, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[17]  P. Bruzzi,et al.  Incremental advance or seismic shift? The need to raise the bar of efficacy for drug approval. , 2009, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[18]  A. Bottomley,et al.  Initial phase II results with crizotinib in advanced ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): PROFILE 1005. , 2011, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[19]  J. Machiels,et al.  Prednisone plus cabazitaxel or mitoxantrone for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer progressing after docetaxel treatment: a randomised open-label trial , 2010, The Lancet.

[20]  R. Prentice Surrogate endpoints in clinical trials: definition and operational criteria. , 1989, Statistics in medicine.

[21]  Frank Diehl,et al.  Detection and quantification of mutations in the plasma of patients with colorectal tumors. , 2005, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[22]  I. Tannock,et al.  Quality of life and/or symptom control in randomized clinical trials for patients with advanced cancer. , 2007, Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

[23]  Xiaoyu Jia,et al.  Circulating tumour cells as prognostic markers in progressive, castration-resistant prostate cancer: a reanalysis of IMMC38 trial data. , 2009, The Lancet. Oncology.

[24]  Haesun Choi,et al.  Correlation of computed tomography and positron emission tomography in patients with metastatic gastrointestinal stromal tumor treated at a single institution with imatinib mesylate: proposal of new computed tomography response criteria. , 2007, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[25]  B. Kramer,et al.  Surrogate endpoint analysis: an exercise in extrapolation. , 2013, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[26]  M. Cronk,et al.  Case report of a generalized seizure related to Paclitaxel infusion. , 2004, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[27]  James J. Driscoll,et al.  Overall Survival: Still the Gold Standard: Why Overall Survival Remains the Definitive End Point in Cancer Clinical Trials , 2009, Cancer journal.

[28]  Robert B Livingston,et al.  Circulating tumor cells and response to chemotherapy in metastatic breast cancer: SWOG S0500. , 2014, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[29]  D. Matei,et al.  Olaparib maintenance therapy in patients with platinum-sensitive relapsed serous ovarian cancer: a preplanned retrospective analysis of outcomes by BRCA status in a randomised phase 2 trial. , 2014, The Lancet. Oncology.

[30]  Richard Pazdur,et al.  Endpoints for assessing drug activity in clinical trials. , 2008, The oncologist.

[31]  A. Giobbie-Hurder,et al.  Developing a Common Language for Tumor Response to Immunotherapy: Immune-Related Response Criteria Using Unidimensional Measurements , 2013, Clinical Cancer Research.

[32]  Nancy Lee,et al.  PET Monitoring of Therapy Response in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma , 2009, Journal of Nuclear Medicine.

[33]  Katherine Karakasis,et al.  Outcomes and endpoints in cancer trials: bridging the divide. , 2015, The Lancet. Oncology.

[34]  Y. Elsayed,et al.  Overall Survival: A Gold Standard in Search of a Surrogate: The Value of Progression-Free Survival and Time to Progression as End Points of Drug Efficacy , 2009, Cancer journal.

[35]  Sung-Bae Kim,et al.  Pertuzumab plus trastuzumab plus docetaxel for metastatic breast cancer. , 2012, The New England journal of medicine.

[36]  Axel Hoos,et al.  Guidelines for the Evaluation of Immune Therapy Activity in Solid Tumors: Immune-Related Response Criteria , 2009, Clinical Cancer Research.

[37]  J Jack Lee,et al.  Change in tumor size by RECIST correlates linearly with overall survival in phase I oncology studies. , 2012, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[38]  K. Getz,et al.  Oncology drug development and approval of systemic anticancer therapy by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. , 2013, The oncologist.

[39]  K. Pienta,et al.  Circulating Tumor Cells Predict Survival Benefit from Treatment in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer , 2008, Clinical Cancer Research.

[40]  J. Ioannidis Why Most Published Research Findings Are False , 2005, PLoS medicine.

[41]  L. Seymour,et al.  Tumor cavitation: impact on objective response evaluation in trials of angiogenesis inhibitors in non-small-cell lung cancer. , 2009, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[42]  J. Jett,et al.  Tumor response and progression‐free survival as potential surrogate endpoints for overall survival in extensive stage small‐cell lung cancer , 2011, Cancer.

[43]  A. Miller,et al.  Reporting results of cancer treatment , 1981, Cancer.

[44]  Alison Stopeck,et al.  Circulating tumor cells, disease progression, and survival in metastatic breast cancer. , 2004, The New England journal of medicine.

[45]  J. Woodcock,et al.  The role of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration review process: clinical trial endpoints in oncology. , 2010, The oncologist.

[46]  D. Sargent,et al.  Predicting Treatment Effect from Surrogate Endpoints and Historical Trials: An Extrapolation Involving Probabilities of a Binary Outcome or Survival to a Specific Time , 2012, Biometrics.

[47]  C. Waldherr,et al.  The clinical value of [90Y-DOTA]-D-Phe1-Tyr3-octreotide (90Y-DOTATOC) in the treatment of neuroendocrine tumours: a clinical phase II study. , 2001, Annals of oncology : official journal of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

[48]  Sumithra J. Mandrekar,et al.  Missing Data and Measurement Variability in Assessing Progression-Free Survival Endpoint in Randomized Clinical Trials , 2013, Clinical Cancer Research.

[49]  P. Murawa,et al.  Erlotinib Plus Gemcitabine Compared With Gemcitabine Alone in Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer: A Phase III Trial of the National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group , 2023, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[50]  E. Basch,et al.  End points and outcomes in castration-resistant prostate cancer: from clinical trials to clinical practice. , 2011, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[51]  Geert Molenberghs,et al.  Relation between tumour response to first-line chemotherapy and survival in advanced colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis , 2000, The Lancet.

[52]  I. Tannock,et al.  Reflections on medical oncology: 25 years of clinical trials--where have we come and where are we going? , 2008, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[53]  R. Kurzrock,et al.  Equipoise lost: ethics, costs, and the regulation of cancer clinical research. , 2010, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[54]  R. Kurzrock,et al.  Ultimate fate of oncology drugs approved by the us food and drug administration without a randomized Trial. , 2009, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[55]  L. Schwartz,et al.  Lessons learned from independent central review. , 2009, European journal of cancer.

[56]  I. Tannock,et al.  Evaluation of treatment benefit: randomized controlled trials and population-based observational research. , 2013, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[57]  E. Eisenhauer,et al.  Re: New guidelines to evaluate the response to treatment in solid tumors (ovarian cancer). , 2005, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[58]  S. Paggi,et al.  Sorafenib in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma , 2008 .

[59]  Renato Martins,et al.  Erlotinib in previously treated non-small-cell lung cancer. , 2005, The New England journal of medicine.

[60]  D. Kerr,et al.  First-line chemotherapy , 2011 .

[61]  J. Giesinger,et al.  Quality of life during chemotherapy in lung cancer patients: results across different treatment lines , 2013, British Journal of Cancer.

[62]  Apurva A Desai,et al.  Sorafenib in advanced clear-cell renal-cell carcinoma. , 2007, The New England journal of medicine.

[63]  H. Mackay,et al.  Olaparib in patients with recurrent high-grade serous or poorly differentiated ovarian carcinoma or triple-negative breast cancer: a phase 2, multicentre, open-label, non-randomised study. , 2011, The Lancet. Oncology.

[64]  N. Rosenfeld,et al.  Noninvasive Identification and Monitoring of Cancer Mutations by Targeted Deep Sequencing of Plasma DNA , 2012, Science Translational Medicine.

[65]  T. Fleming,et al.  Use of chemotherapy plus a monoclonal antibody against HER2 for metastatic breast cancer that overexpresses HER2. , 2001, The New England journal of medicine.

[66]  D. Sargent,et al.  Blinded independent central review of the progression-free survival endpoint. , 2010, The oncologist.

[67]  J. Ioannidis Why Most Published Research Findings Are False , 2005 .

[68]  G. Rosner,et al.  Phase II placebo-controlled randomized discontinuation trial of sorafenib in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. , 2006, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[69]  R. Sullivan Clinical trial design in oncology , 2004 .

[70]  M. Parmar,et al.  Definitions for Response and Progression in Ovarian Cancer Clinical Trials Incorporating RECIST 1.1 and CA 125 Agreed by the Gynecological Cancer Intergroup (GCIG) , 2010, International Journal of Gynecologic Cancer.

[71]  A. Shaw,et al.  Results of a global phase II study with crizotinib in advanced ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). , 2012 .

[72]  P. Trask,et al.  Other Paradigms: Health-Related Quality of Life as a Measure in Cancer Treatment: Its Importance and Relevance , 2009, Cancer journal.

[73]  D. Matei,et al.  Olaparib maintenance therapy in platinum-sensitive relapsed ovarian cancer. , 2012, The New England journal of medicine.

[74]  R. Wahl,et al.  Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Correlates With Akt Pathway Activity but Is Not Predictive of Clinical Outcome During mTOR Inhibitor Therapy , 2009 .

[75]  Lesley Seymour,et al.  Tumor Shrinkage and Objective Response Rates: Gold Standard for Oncology Efficacy Screening Trials, or an Outdated End Point? , 2009, Cancer journal.

[76]  Paul J. van Diest,et al.  Biologic correlates of 18fluorodeoxyglucose uptake in human breast cancer measured by positron emission tomography , 2002 .

[77]  E. Eisenhauer,et al.  Progression-free survival: meaningful or simply measurable? , 2012, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[78]  Marion de Jong,et al.  Somatostatin-receptor-based imaging and therapy of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. , 2010, Endocrine-related cancer.

[79]  Pierre Michel,et al.  FOLFIRINOX versus gemcitabine for metastatic pancreatic cancer. , 2011, The New England journal of medicine.

[80]  R. Sullivan Clinical trial design in oncology: protocol design. , 2004, The Lancet. Oncology.

[81]  N. Rosenfeld,et al.  Non-invasive analysis of acquired resistance to cancer therapy by sequencing of plasma DNA , 2013, Nature.

[82]  Apurva A Desai,et al.  Sorafenib for treatment of renal cell carcinoma: Final efficacy and safety results of the phase III treatment approaches in renal cancer global evaluation trial. , 2009, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[83]  L. Schwartz,et al.  New response evaluation criteria in solid tumours: revised RECIST guideline (version 1.1). , 2009, European journal of cancer.

[84]  R. Wahl,et al.  From RECIST to PERCIST: Evolving Considerations for PET Response Criteria in Solid Tumors , 2009, Journal of Nuclear Medicine.

[85]  J. Wolchok,et al.  The heterogeneity of the kinetics of response to ipilimumab in metastatic melanoma: patient cases. , 2008, Cancer immunity.

[86]  I. Tannock,et al.  Randomised controlled trials and population-based observational research: partners in the evolution of medical evidence , 2014, British Journal of Cancer.

[87]  D. Osoba,et al.  The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30: a quality-of-life instrument for use in international clinical trials in oncology. , 1993, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[88]  C Gatsonis,et al.  Validation of novel imaging methodologies for use as cancer clinical trial end-points. , 2009, European journal of cancer.

[89]  J. Lee,et al.  Demystify statistical significance--time to move on from the p value to bayesian analysis. , 2011, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[90]  Michael Morse,et al.  Relationship of circulating tumor cells to tumor response, progression-free survival, and overall survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. , 2008, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[91]  I. Tannock,et al.  Critical evaluation of disease stabilization as a measure of activity of systemic therapy: lessons from trials with arms in which patients do not receive active treatment. , 2014, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[92]  M. van Glabbeke,et al.  New guidelines to evaluate the response to treatment in solid tumors , 2000, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[93]  Richard Pazdur,et al.  End points and United States Food and Drug Administration approval of oncology drugs. , 2003, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[94]  Sumithra J. Mandrekar,et al.  Comparison of Continuous versus Categorical Tumor Measurement–Based Metrics to Predict Overall Survival in Cancer Treatment Trials , 2011, Clinical Cancer Research.

[95]  B. Monk,et al.  Circulating tumor cells predict progression free survival and overall survival in patients with relapsed/recurrent advanced ovarian cancer. , 2011, Gynecologic oncology.

[96]  W. Weber Positron emission tomography as an imaging biomarker. , 2006, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[97]  I. Barofsky,et al.  Recommendations on health-related quality of life research to support labeling and promotional claims in the United States , 2004, Quality of Life Research.

[98]  E. Van Cutsem,et al.  Association of progression-free survival with patient-reported outcomes and survival: results from a randomised phase 3 trial of panitumumab , 2007, British Journal of Cancer.

[99]  M. Ando,et al.  Early pharmacodynamic assessment using ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron-emission tomography on molecular targeted therapy and cytotoxic chemotherapy for clinical outcome prediction. , 2014, Clinical lung cancer.

[100]  L. Siu,et al.  Surrogate end points for median overall survival in metastatic colorectal cancer: literature-based analysis from 39 randomized controlled trials of first-line chemotherapy. , 2007, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[101]  S. Goodman,et al.  Circulating mutant DNA to assess tumor dynamics , 2008, Nature Medicine.

[102]  J. Knox,et al.  State-of-the-art in the management of locally advanced and metastatic gallbladder cancer , 2013, Current opinion in oncology.

[103]  D. Sargent,et al.  Evaluation of alternate categorical tumor metrics and cut points for response categorization using the RECIST 1.1 data warehouse. , 2014, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[104]  R. Simon,et al.  Stable Disease Is Not Preferentially Observed With Targeted Therapies and as Currently Defined Has Limited Value in Drug Development , 2009, Cancer journal.

[105]  T. Conroy,et al.  Impact of FOLFIRINOX compared with gemcitabine on quality of life in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer: results from the PRODIGE 4/ACCORD 11 randomized trial. , 2013, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[106]  I. Tannock,et al.  Docetaxel plus prednisone or mitoxantrone plus prednisone for advanced prostate cancer. , 2004, The New England journal of medicine.

[107]  Alona Muzikansky,et al.  Early palliative care for patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. , 2010, The New England journal of medicine.

[108]  K. Pantel,et al.  Circulating tumor cells and circulating tumor DNA. , 2012, Annual review of medicine.

[109]  M. Parmar,et al.  Re: new guidelines to evaluate the response to treatment in solid tumors [ovarian cancer]. Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup. , 2000, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[110]  A. Ko FOLFIRINOX: a small step or a great leap forward? , 2011, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[111]  L. Broemeling,et al.  Interobserver and intraobserver variability in measurement of non-small-cell carcinoma lung lesions: implications for assessment of tumor response. , 2003, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[112]  D. DeMets,et al.  Biomarkers and surrogate endpoints: Preferred definitions and conceptual framework , 2001, Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics.

[113]  A. Oza,et al.  Intermediate clinical endpoints: A bridge between progression‐free survival and overall survival in ovarian cancer trials , 2015, Cancer.

[114]  S. O’Day,et al.  Targeting cytotoxic T‐lymphocyte antigen‐4 (CTLA‐4) , 2007, Cancer.

[115]  A. Shelling,et al.  Adult granulosa cell tumours (GCT): clinicopathological outcomes including FOXL2 mutational status and expression. , 2013, Gynecologic oncology.

[116]  D. Sargent,et al.  Progression-free survival is a surrogate for survival in advanced colorectal cancer. , 2007, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[117]  R. Kurzrock,et al.  Fool’s gold, lost treasures, and the randomized clinical trial , 2013, BMC Cancer.

[118]  P. Keegan,et al.  Accelerated approval of oncology products: the food and drug administration experience. , 2011, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[119]  A. Tolcher Stable Disease Is a Valid End Point in Clinical Trials , 2009, Cancer journal.

[120]  E. Krenning,et al.  Radiolabeled somatostatin analog [177Lu-DOTA0,Tyr3]octreotate in patients with endocrine gastroenteropancreatic tumors. , 2005, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[121]  Lisa Wang,et al.  Reporting of serious adverse drug reactions of targeted anticancer agents in pivotal phase III clinical trials. , 2011, Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

[122]  D. Sargent,et al.  Taking the long view: how to design a series of Phase III trials to maximize cumulative therapeutic benefit , 2012, Clinical trials.