Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

The impacts of climate change on certain aspects of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been established. However, the change in sea surface temperature, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude, remained uncertain. Now, the sea surface response is shown to be time-varying, with an increasing trend to 2040 followed by a decreasing trend. The previous uncertainty is attributed to the expectation of unidirectional behaviour and unrealistic model representations.

[1]  Tong Lee,et al.  El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean , 2011 .

[2]  Anomalous El Niño of 1982-83 , 1983 .

[3]  Shang-Ping Xie,et al.  Wave- and Anemometer-Based Sea Surface Wind (WASWind) for Climate Change Analysis* , 2010 .

[4]  J. Carton,et al.  A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) , 2008 .

[5]  S. Stevenson.  Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty‐first century: Results from CMIP5 , 2012 .

[6]  F. Jin,et al.  A coupled‐stability index for ENSO , 2006 .

[7]  A. Fedorov,et al.  Is El Nino changing? , 2000, Science.

[8]  A. Timmermann,et al.  The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño , 2010 .

[9]  F. Jin,et al.  An ENSO stability analysis. Part I: results from a hybrid coupled model , 2011 .

[10]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming , 2014 .

[11]  Stephen G. Yeager,et al.  The global climatology of an interannually varying air–sea flux data set , 2009 .

[12]  S. Power,et al.  Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability , 2013, Nature.

[13]  M. Collins,et al.  El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study , 2005 .

[14]  Thomas M. Smith,et al.  Improvements to NOAA’s Historical Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (1880–2006) , 2008 .

[15]  Fei-Fei Jin,et al.  An Equatorial Ocean Recharge Paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual Model , 1997 .

[16]  E. Guilyardi.  El Niño–mean state–seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble , 2006 .

[17]  C. Deser,et al.  Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall. , 2010 .

[18]  Francisco P. Chavez,et al.  From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal Change in the Pacific Ocean , 2003, Science.

[19]  P. Tyson,et al.  Sea-surface temperature fluctuations during the Holocene off the south coast of Africa: implications for terrestrial climate and rainfall , 1995 .

[20]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  Late-twentieth-century emergence of the El Niño propagation asymmetry and future projections , 2013, Nature.

[21]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[22]  A. Sterl,et al.  The ERA‐40 re‐analysis , 2005 .

[23]  F. Jin,et al.  Recharge Oscillator Mechanisms in Two Types of ENSO , 2013 .

[24]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  Assessing the 21st century shift in ENSO variability in terms of the Bjerknes stability index , 2013 .

[25]  Meteorology: Anomalous El Niño of 1982–83 , 1983, Nature.

[26]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[27]  Fei-Fei Jin,et al.  Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of ENSO(. , 2004 .

[28]  Bin Wang,et al.  Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate? , 2000 .

[29]  G. Vecchi,et al.  Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation , 2007 .

[30]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  Assessing the Twenty-First-Century Shift in ENSO Variability in Terms of the Bjerknes Stability Index* , 2014 .

[31]  W. Cai,et al.  ENSO stability in coupled climate models and its association with mean state , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[32]  Michael H. Glantz,et al.  ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science , 2006, Science.

[33]  De-Zheng Sun.  El Niño: A coupled response to radiative heating? , 1997 .