Estimation of fluctuations in the performance indicators of equipment that operates under conditions of unstable loading

Abstracts The dynamic model of change in the performance indicators of sophisticated equipment was proposed. The proposed model consists of two parts. The first part concerns modeling of a random process of changes in the level of equipment loading and is described by the stochastic equation in the form of Ito (5). The second part concerns modeling of dynamics of equipment wear depending on changing in the levels of its loading and is described by the differential equation. As a result, the stochastic dynamic model of changes in performance indicators of sophisticated equipment, which takes into account random fluctuations of equipment loading, was obtained. Using the proposed model, we analyzed dynamics of average total specific costs of equipment in the case when a degree of equipment loading is subject to random changes. Quantitative ratios of average total specific costs of equipment, level of fluctuations of these costs during possible random changes in loading and terms of equipment replacement were established. Studies have demonstrated that changes in average total specific costs of equipment can be insignificant for a certain time. In this case, the spread range of the level of costs of equipment within the same time range can increase significantly. That is why it makes sense to reduce the service term of equipment. This would lead to an insignificant increase in the mean values of equipment performance indicators, however, their stability level will improve considerably.