Comparing Short Gamma-Ray Burst Jet Structure Models

A structured gamma-ray burst (GRB) jet could explain the dimness of the prompt emission observed from GRB 170817A, but the exact form of this structure is still ambiguous. However, with the promise of future joint gravitational wave (GW) and GRB observations, we shall be able to examine populations of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers rather than on a case-by-case basis. We present an analysis that considers GW triggered BNS events both with and without short GRB counterparts assuming that events without a counterpart were observed off-axis. This allows for Bayes factors to be calculated to compare different jet structure models. We perform model comparison between a Gaussian and power-law apparent jet structure on simulated data to demonstrate that the correct model can be distinguished with a log Bayes factor of >5 after fewer than 100 events. Constraints on the apparent structure jet model parameters are also made. After 25(100) events the angular width of the core of a power-law jet structure can be constrained within a 90% credible interval of width ∼9.1(4.4)°, and the outer beaming angle to be within ∼19.9(8.5)°. Similarly, we show the width of a Gaussian jet structure to be constrained to ∼2.8(1.6)°.