Confronting and Coping with Uncertainty in Biodiversity Research and Praxis

This paper summarises discussions in a workshop entitled “exploring uncertainties in biodiversity science, policy and management”. It draws together experiences gained by scientists and scholars when encountering and coping with different types of uncertainty in their work in the field of biodiversity protection. The

[1]  D. Simberloff.  Non-natives: 141 scientists object , 2011, Nature.

[2]  R. Barbosa,et al.  The Brazilian Program for Biodiversity Research (PPBio) Information System , 2012 .

[3]  Herbert A. Simon,et al.  The Sciences of the Artificial , 1970 .

[4]  J. Pielke,et al.  The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics , 2007 .

[5]  Peter A. Vanrolleghem,et al.  Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - A framework and guidance , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[6]  W. Magnusson,et al.  Low Primate Diversity and Abundance in Northern Amazonia and its Implications for Conservation , 2012 .

[7]  François Bousquet,et al.  Modelling with stakeholders within a development project , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[8]  Isabelle Reginster,et al.  Scenarios for investigating risks to biodiversity , 2012 .

[9]  David Kenfack,et al.  Scale‐dependent relationships between tree species richness and ecosystem function in forests , 2013 .

[10]  Karin Frank,et al.  How to Use Models to Improve Analysis and Governance of Social-Ecological Systems - The Reference Frame MORE , 2013 .

[11]  J. MacLaurin,et al.  What Is Biodiversity , 2008 .

[12]  Helen M. Regan,et al.  Treatments of Uncertainty and Variability in Ecological Risk Assessment of Single-Species Populations , 2003 .

[13]  Stefan Baumgärtner,et al.  Uncertainty and Sustainability in the Management of Rangelands , 2006 .

[14]  K. Henle,et al.  Uncertainty in biodiversity science, policy and management: a conceptual overview , 2014 .

[15]  J. Andrew Royle,et al.  ESTIMATING SITE OCCUPANCY RATES WHEN DETECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN ONE , 2002, Ecology.

[16]  Yrjö Haila,et al.  Scaling environmental issues: problems and paradoxes , 2002 .

[17]  Jim Schieck,et al.  Planning forwards: biodiversity research and monitoring systems for better management. , 2010, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[18]  Atte Moilanen,et al.  Securing the conservation of biodiversity across administrative levels and spatial, temporal, and ecological scales - Research needs and approaches of the SCALES project , 2010 .

[19]  B. English.  Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability , 1991 .

[20]  E. Framstad,et al.  The Norwegian Nature Index: Expert evaluations in precautionary approaches to biodiversity policy , 2012 .

[21]  W. Magnusson,et al.  Topographic and edaphic effects on the distribution of terrestrially reproducing anurans in Central Amazonia: mesoscale spatial patterns , 2007, Journal of Tropical Ecology.

[22]  José Laurindo Campos dos Santos,et al.  Biodiversity and Integrated Environmental Monitoring , 2013 .

[23]  W. Magnusson,et al.  Limited effects of dominant ants on assemblage species richness in three Amazon forests , 2012 .

[24]  Steven F Railsback,et al.  Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology , 2012, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[25]  H. Tuomisto,et al.  Guia de samambaias e licófitas da REBIO Uatumã - Amazônia Central | Guide to the ferns and lycophytes of REBIO Uatumã - Central Amazonia , 2012 .

[26]  G. Daily,et al.  Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity , 2012, Nature.

[27]  Pål Kvaløy,et al.  The Nature Index: A General Framework for Synthesizing Knowledge on the State of Biodiversity , 2011, PloS one.

[28]  Dirk J. Roux,et al.  From scorecard to social learning: a reflective coassessment approach for promoting multiagency cooperation in natural resource management , 2011 .

[29]  Robert A. Gitzen,et al.  Design and Analysis of Long-term Ecological Monitoring Studies: Index , 2012 .

[30]  Bryn Nelson.  Data sharing: Empty archives , 2009, Nature.

[31]  W. Magnusson,et al.  Geographic position of sample grid and removal of uncommon species affect multivariate analyses of diverse assemblages: The case of oribatid mites (Acari: Oribatida) , 2013 .

[32]  David Gee,et al.  LATE LESSONS FROM EARLY WARNINGS , 2004 .

[33]  J. Brownstein,et al.  Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health , 2012, Nature.

[34]  L. M. Bini,et al.  How far can we go in simplifying biomonitoring assessments? An integrated analysis of taxonomic surrogacy, taxonomic sufficiency and numerical resolution in a megadiverse region , 2012 .

[35]  B. Latour.  Pandora's Hope: Essays on the Reality of Science Studies , 1999 .

[36]  Frank Dziock,et al.  Study Design for Assessing Species Environment Relationships and Developing Indicator Systems for Ecological Changesin Floodplains – The Approach of the RIVA Project , 2006 .

[37]  Jim Hone,et al.  Estimating the force of infection; Mycobacterium bovis infection in feral ferrets Mustela furo in New Zealand , 2002 .

[38]  David Thacher.  Deliberative Policy Analysis: Understanding Governance in the Network Society , 2005 .

[39]  Uta Berger,et al.  Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology , 2005, Science.

[40]  W. Foley,et al.  Ecological applications of near infrared reflectance spectroscopy – a tool for rapid, cost-effective prediction of the composition of plant and animal tissues and aspects of animal performance , 1998, Oecologia.

[41]  L. Reijnders,et al.  Uncertainty and sustainability , 1999 .

[42]  James D. Nichols,et al.  Monitoring of biological diversity in space and time , 2001 .

[43]  Matthew B. Jones,et al.  Challenges and Opportunities of Open Data in Ecology , 2011, Science.

[44]  John M. Gowdy,et al.  Evolutionary Theories in Environmental and Resource Economics: Approaches and Applications , 2000 .

[45]  David B. Lindenmayer,et al.  A strategic plan for an Australian Long‐Term Environmental Monitoring Network , 2011 .

[46]  R. Bodmer,et al.  People in nature : wildlife conservation in South and Central America , 2004 .

[47]  John D. Pantis,et al.  Conceptual gaps in the national strategy for the implementation of the European Natura 2000 conservation policy in Greece , 2009 .

[48]  R. Derwent,et al.  Late lessons from early warnings: the Precautionary Principle 1896–2000 , 2002 .

[49]  C. Rennó,et al.  Vertical distance from drainage drives floristic composition changes in an Amazonian rainforest , 2014 .

[50]  Christophe Le Page,et al.  Spatial representations are not neutral: Lessons from a participatory agent-based modelling process in a land-use conflict , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[51]  P. Wallace.  The Union of Concerned Scientists , 2008 .

[52]  L Griffin.  Book Review: Governing a Common Sea: Environmental Policies in the Baltic Sea Region. Joas M, Jahn, D and Kern K (Eds). Earthscan Publications London, 2008. , 2009 .

[53]  J. Terborgh,et al.  Soil physical conditions limit palm and tree basal area in Amazonian forests , 2014 .

[54]  I. Hacking.  The Social Construction of What , 1999 .

[55]  Yrjo Haila,et al.  Introduction: What to Say about Nature’s “Speech” , 2006 .

[56]  W. Magnusson,et al.  Changes in Ground‐dwelling Ant Functional Diversity are Correlated with Water‐Table Level in an Amazonian Terra Firme Forest , 2013 .

[57]  O. Skarpaas,et al.  The Norwegian Nature Index – state and trends of biodiversity in Norway , 2012 .

[58]  Felix Rauschmayer,et al.  Examining Processes or/and Outcomes? - Evaluation Concepts in European Governance of Natural Resources , 2009 .

[59]  M. Conroy,et al.  Analysis and Management of Animal Populations , 2002 .

[60]  S. Connolly,et al.  Fitting and empirical evaluation of models for species abundance distributions , 2011 .

[61]  David R. Anderson,et al.  AIC MODEL SELECTION IN OVERDISPERSED CAPTURE-RECAPTURE DATA' , 1994 .

[62]  T. Kuhn,et al.  The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. , 1964 .

[63]  Niro Higuchi,et al.  Species Spectral Signature: Discriminating closely related plant species in the Amazon with Near-Infrared Leaf-Spectroscopy , 2013 .

[64]  Brendan A. Wintle,et al.  A Protocol for Better Design, Application, and Communication of Population Viability Analyses , 2013, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[65]  Jerome R. Ravetz,et al.  Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy , 1990 .

[66]  J. Spangenberg,et al.  Precisely incorrect? Monetising the value of ecosystem services § , 2010 .

[67]  Y. Haila.  Genealogy of nature conservation: a political perspective , 2012 .

[68]  Timo Vuorisalo,et al.  Hunting bounties as a key measure of historical wildlife management and game conservation: Finnish bounty schemes 1647–1975 , 2005, Oryx.

[69]  Leonard A. Smith.  Chaos: A Very Short Introduction , 2007 .

[70]  C. Dyke.  The Evolutionary Dynamics of Complex Systems: A Study in Biosocial Complexity , 1987 .

[71]  Trent McDonald,et al.  Design and Analysis of Long-term Ecological Monitoring Studies: Spatial sampling designs for long-term ecological monitoring , 2012 .

[72]  Birgit Müller,et al.  NEW HORIZONS FOR MANAGING THE ENVIRONMENT: A REVIEW OF COUPLED SOCIAL‐ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS MODELING , 2012 .

[73]  William E. Magnusson,et al.  The Need for Large-Scale, Integrated Studies of Biodiversity ? the Experience of the Program for Biodiversity Research in Brazilian Amazonia , 2010 .

[74]  M. B. Beck,et al.  Uncertainty and precaution in environmental management. , 2005, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[75]  C. Holling,et al.  Command and Control and the Pathology of Natural Resource Management , 1996 .

[76]  J. Clobert,et al.  Nature Conservation – a new dimension in Open Access publishing bridging science and application , 2012 .

[77]  L. López-Hoffman,et al.  Saving Nature under the Big Tent of Ecosystem Services: a Response to Adams and Redford , 2010, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[78]  Sahotra Sarkar,et al.  Operationalizing biodiversity for conservation planning , 2002, Journal of Biosciences.

[79]  R. Rosen.  Life Itself: A Comprehensive Inquiry Into the Nature, Origin, and Fabrication of Life , 1991 .

[80]  E J Milner-Gulland,et al.  Integrating fisheries approaches and household utility models for improved resource management , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[81]  Anja Walter,et al.  The Panda’s Thumb , 2011 .

[82]  S. Gould.  The Panda's Thumb , 1980 .

[83]  W. Magnusson,et al.  The width of riparian habitats for understory birds in an Amazonian forest. , 2012, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[84]  M. Becker.  Evidence Argument And Persuasion In The Policy Process , 2016 .

[85]  Y. Malhi,et al.  Disentangling regional and local tree diversity in the Amazon , 2009 .

[86]  Joel H. Reynolds.  Design and Analysis of Long-term Ecological Monitoring Studies: An overview of statistical considerations in long-term monitoring , 2012 .

[87]  M. V. Price,et al.  The ecology of place : contributions of place-based research to ecological understanding , 2010 .

[88]  N. Bunnefeld,et al.  Management strategy evaluation: a powerful tool for conservation? , 2011, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[89]  Mark A. Davis,et al.  Don't judge species on their origins , 2011, Nature.

[90]  Wiebe E. Bijker,et al.  Science in action : how to follow scientists and engineers through society , 1989 .

[91]  D. Sarewitz.  How science makes environmental controversies worse , 2004 .

[92]  C. Perrings,et al.  Conserving Biodiversity: Reconciling Local and Global Public Benefits , 2003 .

[93]  Douglas Evans,et al.  Building the European Union’s Natura 2000 network , 2012 .

[94]  Quinn Payton,et al.  Design and Analysis of Long-term Ecological Monitoring Studies: Spatially balanced survey designs for natural resources , 2012 .

[95]  Charles J. Puccia,et al.  Qualitative Modeling of Complex Systems: An Introduction to Loop Analysis and Time Averaging , 1986 .

[96]  W. Magnusson.  Ecoregion as a Pragmatic Tool , 2004 .

[97]  T. Lovejoy,et al.  Biological Monitoring in the Amazon: Recent Progress and Future Needs , 2007 .

[98]  R. Levins.  The strategy of model building in population biology , 1966 .

[99]  F. Luizão,et al.  RAPELD: A MODIFICATION OF THE GENTRY METHOD FOR BIODIVERSITY SURVEYS IN LONG-TERM ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH SITES. , 2005 .

[100]  Norbert Elias,et al.  Technization and Civilization , 1995 .

[101]  Richard Condit,et al.  Tropical Forest Census Plots , 1998, Environmental Intelligence Unit.

[102]  Guy Pe'er,et al.  Towards a different attitude to uncertainty , 2014 .

[103]  M. Birnbaum,et al.  Environmental program and policy evaluation : addressing methodological challenges , 2009 .

[104]  I. Omann,et al.  Examining Processes or Outcomes? - Towards a Combination of Evaluation Concepts in European Environmental Governance , 2008 .

[105]  E. Turnhout,et al.  Databases, scaling practices, and the globalization of biodiversity , 2011 .

[106]  Maarten A. Hajer,et al.  The Politics of Environmental Discourse , 1997 .

[107]  Damaris Zurell,et al.  The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers , 2010 .

[108]  I. Ring.  Instrument Mixes for Biodiversity Policies , 2011 .

[109]  B. Wynne.  Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm. , 1992 .

[110]  J. Terborgh,et al.  Hyperdominance in the Amazonian Tree Flora , 2013, Science.

[111]  J. Zuanon,et al.  Seasonal variation in the composition of fish assemblages in small Amazonian forest streams: evidence for predictable changes. , 2009 .

[112]  A. Ellison,et al.  Rapid Inventory of the Ant Assemblage in a Temperate Hardwood Forest: Species Composition and Assessment of Sampling Methods , 2007, Environmental entomology.

[113]  S. Funtowicz,et al.  A New Scientific Methodology for Global Environmental Issues , 1991 .

[114]  A. Garfinkel,et al.  Forms of explanation : rethinking the questions in social theory , 1982 .

[115]  Victor Lemes Landeiro,et al.  The Geometry of Spatial Analyses: Implications for Conservation Biologists , 2011 .

[116]  Mark Gahegan,et al.  Biodiversity data should be published, cited, and peer reviewed. , 2013, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[117]  Bhaskar Vira,et al.  Ecosystem services and conservation strategy: beware the silver bullet , 2009 .

[118]  Irene Ring,et al.  Evolutionary strategies in environmental policy , 1997 .

[119]  Helene Figari.  The ambivalent nature of biodiversity: Scientists' perspectives on the Norwegian Nature Index , 2012 .

[120]  L. Firbank,et al.  Identifying and managing the conflicts between agriculture and biodiversity conservation in Europe - a review , 2008 .

[121]  J. Thorson,et al.  Assessing the quality of life history information in publicly available databases. , 2014, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[122]  K. J. Wessels,et al.  A multicriteria approach to reserve selection: addressing long-term biodiversity maintenance , 2002, Biodiversity & Conservation.

[123]  R. Pielke.  Consensus About Climate Change? , 2005, Science.

[124]  Moshe Sniedovich.  Response to Burgman and Regan: the elephant in the rhetoric on info-gap decision theory. , 2014, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[125]  R. Craig.  'Stationarity is Dead' - Long Live Transformation: Five Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Law , 2010 .

[126]  Douglas H. Johnson,et al.  Design and Analysis of Long-term Ecological Monitoring Studies: Monitoring that matters , 2012 .

[127]  J. Hiedanpää.  European-wide conservation versus local well-being: the reception of the Natura 2000 Reserve Network in Karvia, SW-Finland , 2002 .

[128]  R. K. Neumann,et al.  EU agricultural reform fails on biodiversity , 2014, Science.

[129]  J. Dewey,et al.  The Public and its Problems , 1927 .

[130]  J. Ruhl.  General Design Principles for Resilience and Adaptive Capacity in Legal Systems--With Applications to Climate Change Adaptation , 2010 .

[131]  T. Carter,et al.  Scenarios as a tool for large-scale ecological research: experiences and legacy of the ALARM project , 2012 .

[132]  A. Rapoport,et al.  An Optimal Strategy of Evolution , 1974, The Quarterly Review of Biology.

[133]  K. Henle,et al.  HYDROLOGICAL GRADIENT AND SPECIES TRAITS EXPLAIN GASTROPOD DIVERSITY IN FLOODPLAIN GRASSLANDS , 2012 .

[134]  R. Levins,et al.  The precautionary principle in environmental science. , 2001, Environmental health perspectives.

[135]  Swen Kortig.  Authoritative Governance Policy Making In The Age Of Mediatization , 2016 .

[136]  F. Luizão,et al.  Short‐Term Temporal Changes in Tree Live Biomass in a Central Amazonian Forest, Brazil , 2010 .

[137]  C. E. Puente,et al.  The Essence of Chaos , 1995 .

[138]  Stefan Baumgärtner,et al.  Pitfalls and Potential of Institutional Change: Rain-Index Insurance and the Sustainability of Rangeland Management , 2011 .

[139]  Christian K. Feld,et al.  Ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation: concepts and a glossary , 2010, Biodiversity and Conservation.

[140]  Atte Moilanen,et al.  Core concepts of spatial prioritisation in systematic conservation planning , 2012, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[141]  W. Magnusson,et al.  Trade-offs between complementarity and redundancy in the use of different sampling techniques for ground-dwelling ant assemblages , 2012 .

[142]  Yu-Pin Lin,et al.  Geostatistical approaches and optimal additional sampling schemes for spatial patterns and future sampling of bird diversity , 2008 .

[143]  G. Cumming,et al.  Scale mismatches in social-ecological systems: Causes, consequences, and solutions , 2006 .

[144]  Dirk S. Schmeller,et al.  Priorities for biodiversity monitoring in Europe: A review of supranational policies and a novel scheme for integrative prioritization , 2013 .

[145]  J. Meadowcroft,et al.  Politics and scale: some implications for environmental governance , 2002 .

[146]  B. Dickson,et al.  Biodiversity and the precautionary principle : risk and uncertainty in conservation and sustainable use , 2005 .

[147]  I. Ring,et al.  Human - Wildlife Conflicts in Europe: Fisheries and Fish-eating Vertebrates as a Model Case , 2013 .

[148]  H. Simon,et al.  Models of Discovery : and other topics in the methods of science , 1977 .

[149]  Gabriela Zuquim,et al.  Broad Scale Distribution of Ferns and Lycophytes along Environmental Gradients in Central and Northern Amazonia, Brazil , 2012 .

[150]  A. Garfinkel.  Forms of Explanation , 1981 .

[151]  Klaus Henle,et al.  Biological Indicator Systems in Floodplains – a Review , 2006 .

[152]  J. Clobert,et al.  Advantages of Volunteer‐Based Biodiversity Monitoring in Europe , 2009, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[153]  Resistance to Top-Down Conservation Policy and the Search for New Participatory Models , 2008 .

[154]  O. Skarpaas,et al.  Knowledge gathering and communication on biodiversity: Developing the Norwegian Nature Index , 2012 .

[155]  J. Swart.  Legitimacy in European Nature Conservation Policy , 2008 .

[156]  Carl J. Walters,et al.  Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources , 1986 .

[157]  Jonathan V. Higgins,et al.  A Freshwater Classification Approach for Biodiversity Conservation Planning , 2005 .

[158]  Matthew Jones,et al.  Maximizing the Value of Ecological Data with Structured Metadata: An Introduction to Ecological Metadata Language (EML) and Principles for Metadata Creation , 2005 .