Energy in transition.
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Civilization is running out of cheap oil and natural gasenvironmental room for absorbing pollution and tolerance for the risks of nuclear energy. Between 1890 and 1970 the costs of supplying energy and the prices paid stayed constant. the oil-price shocks of 1973-74 and 1979 doubled and quadrupled the real price of oil. In 1973 oil constituted nearly 1/2 of the worlds industrial energy forms. The excessive costs of energy caused worldwide recession debts thwarted the development of oil-poor Southern hemisphere countries and saddled industrial countries with the economic burdens of the poor. 100 years of unprecedented population growth was coupled with the consumption of some 200 terawatt-years of oil and gas representing 20% of the earths stock of these fuels. At this rate of doubling consumption every 15-20 years the initial stock will be depleted in 30-40 years. Coal solar energy and fission and fusion fuels are more abundant however their economic costs are higher. The costs of controlling pollution also contribute to higher energy costs. In the US environmental impacts increased the costs of petroleum products by 25% in the past 20 years and coal- and nuclear-power fuel electricity by 40%. The effect on public health and safety of sulfur dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and low-dose radiation from nuclear fission are uncertain and difficult to quantify. The ecological threats are even more elusive. Humanity has to tackle the economic impact of pressing issues: global climate change safe nuclear energy biomass energy harnessing sunlight future carbon dioxide emissions from developing countries geothermal energy and energy efficiency while at the same time limiting runaway population growth.