An improved canopy transpiration model and parameter uncertainty analysis by Bayesian approach

In this paper, an improved canopy transpiration (Ec) model that considered the unidirectional influence of soil evaporation on Ec was presented by extending Penman-Monteith model for increasing accuracy of modelling in sub-humid regions, and a Bayesian approach was used to fit the transpiration model to half-hourly transpiration rates for the 14-year-old cherry (Prunus avium L.) orchard collected over 4-month period and probabilistically estimated its parameters and prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic model was extended by adding a normally distributed error term, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method was used to determine the posterior parameter distributions. Seasonal variation of the Ec was analyzed by the experiments of Sap Flow method in Sijiqing Orchard in Beijing, north of China. The result showed there were larger uncertainties of the parameter and transpiration. The average value of parameters was used for the model, and long series data from simulated value of the model were compared with the measured data, and it showed that the improved transpiration model possessed high accuracy.

[1]  Reiji Kimura,et al.  Estimation of evapotranspiration, transpiration ratio and water-use efficiency from a sparse canopy using a compartment model , 2004 .

[2]  John M. Norman,et al.  Estimating plant-available water across a field with an inverse yield model , 2003 .

[3]  Kurt K. Benke,et al.  Parameter uncertainty, sensitivity analysis and prediction error in a water-balance hydrological model , 2008, Math. Comput. Model..

[4]  G. Campbell,et al.  An Introduction to Environmental Biophysics , 1977 .

[5]  Gentry White,et al.  Simultaneous estimation of hunting pressure, harvest and hunter success rates using WinBUGS , 2006 .

[6]  Luis S. Pereira,et al.  AERODYNAMIC AND SURFACE RESISTANCES OF COMPLETE COVER CROPS: HOW GOOD IS THE “BIG LEAF”? , 1998 .

[7]  Huaicheng Guo,et al.  Water quality modeling for load reduction under uncertainty: a Bayesian approach. , 2008, Water research.

[8]  Mathias Neumann Andersen,et al.  A quantitative approach to developing more mechanistic gas exchange models for field grown potato: A new insight into chemical and hydraulic signalling , 2009 .

[9]  P. Jarvis.  The Interpretation of the Variations in Leaf Water Potential and Stomatal Conductance Found in Canopies in the Field , 1976 .

[10]  M. Raupach,et al.  Maximum conductances for evaporation from global vegetation types , 1995 .

[11]  Martin F. Lambert,et al.  A probabilistic method for assisting knowledge extraction from artificial neural networks used for hydrological prediction , 2006, Math. Comput. Model..

[12]  Steve Green,et al.  Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration adapted to estimate irrigated tree transpiration , 2006 .

[13]  Roman Krzysztofowicz,et al.  Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model , 1999 .

[14]  J. Monteith.  Evaporation and environment. , 1965, Symposia of the Society for Experimental Biology.

[15]  David Gustafsson,et al.  Bayesian calibration of a model describing carbon, water and heat fluxes for a Swedish boreal forest stand. , 2008 .

[16]  John H. Prueger,et al.  Radiation balance and evaporation partitioning in a narrow-row soybean canopy , 2007 .

[17]  A. Granier,et al.  Evaluation of transpiration in a Douglas-fir stand by means of sap flow measurements. , 1987, Tree physiology.

[18]  D. S. Mackay,et al.  Physiological tradeoffs in the parameterization of a model of canopy transpiration , 2003 .

[19]  Brent Clothier,et al.  Modeling light interception and transpiration of apple tree canopies , 2003 .

[20]  Enrico Bertuzzo,et al.  River networks and ecological corridors: Reactive transport on fractals, migration fronts, hydrochory , 2007 .

[21]  David Higdon,et al.  A Bayesian hierarchical model to predict benthic oxygen demand from organic matter loading in estuaries and coastal zones , 2001 .

[22]  Nader Katerji,et al.  Measurement and modelling of evapotranspiration of irrigated citrus orchard under Mediterranean conditions , 2005 .

[23]  J. Wallace,et al.  Evaporation from sparse crops‐an energy combination theory , 2007 .

[24]  D. S. Mackay,et al.  Bayesian analysis for uncertainty estimation of a canopy transpiration model , 2007 .