THE ASIA PACIFIC LNG MARKET: ISSUES AND OUTLOOK

With rising natural gas demand and limited reserves in many Asia Pacific countries, LNG imports have emerged as an important gas supply source in the region. Rapid uptake of LNG has occurred in Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei, and new and potential LNG markets are emerging in India, China, the Philippines, New Zealand and the north American west coast, among others. Growth in Asia Pacific LNG demand has encouraged the development of LNG export projects in the region, which has become the world’s largest LNG supplier, and the Middle East. Asia Pacific LNG imports are projected to nearly double by 2015. This will provide opportunities and challenges for LNG suppliers to the Asia Pacific market, including Australia. Competition to retain markets among existing LNG suppliers will be strong, although there will be a key role for new projects. Potential regional LNG supply capacity in the next 10 years is significant: Australia’s LNG export capacity has the potential to more than quadruple with a number of new projects scheduled to become operational. This paper reviews existing LNG demand and supply in the Asia Pacific region and provides an assessment of likely future developments in the market over the period to 2015, including the opportunities for the Australian LNG industry. The analysis in the paper is based on ABARE’s Asia Pacific LNG market: issues and outlook, released in November 2004, and excludes later developments.