Early warning signals of regime shifts from cross-scale connectivity of land-cover patterns

Abstract Increasing external pressures from human activities and climate change can lead to desertification, affecting the livelihood of more than 25% of the world's population. Thus, determining proximity to transition to desertification is particularly central for arid regions before they may convert into deserts, and recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such regime shifts. We here draw the attention to some emerging land-cover cross-scale patterns with a historical characteristic sequence of different regimes in arid or semi-arid Mediterranean regions that could indicate an impending transition to the tightening and extension of desertification processes. Inflexibility of land administration may, in turn, reinforce desertification processes, erode the resilience and promote regime shifts and collapse instead of the adaptability required to counter surprises due to climate change. Various theoretical studies have designated the increase in spatial connectivity as the leading indicator of early warning for an impending critical transition of regime shifts. We show that a potential way to address early warning signals of regime shifts to monitor and predict changes is to look at current land-cover regime within a simple framework for interpreting cross-scale spatial patterns. We provide examples of this approach for the Apulia region in southern Italy with desertification processes in place, and discuss what a cross-scale land-cover pattern could mean, what it says about the condition of socio-ecological landscapes, and what could be the effects of changing observed conditions ought to, for instance, climate change. We took advantage of the rich information provided by cross-scale pattern analysis in the pattern transition space provided by classic neutral landscape models. We show potentially dramatic shifts of connectivity at low land-cover composition below certain thresholds, and suggest that the degree to which the observed pattern departs from a particular neutral model can indicate early warning signals of regime shifts, and how those landscapes might evolve/react to additional land-cover variation. Moreover, as the land-cover pattern mostly depends on social-economic factors, we argue that we have to change societal values at the root of inflexibility.

[1]  J. Reynolds,et al.  A Simulation Experiment to Quantify Spatial Heterogeneity in Categorical Maps , 1994 .

[2]  L. Musacchio The scientific basis for the design of landscape sustainability: A conceptual framework for translational landscape research and practice of designed landscapes and the six Es of landscape sustainability , 2009, Landscape Ecology.

[3]  D. Decker,et al.  Social Learning for Collaborative Natural Resource Management , 2003 .

[4]  J. Norberg,et al.  ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE OF SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS , 2005 .

[5]  James M. Bullock,et al.  Restoration of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services on Agricultural Land , 2012, Ecosystems.

[6]  M. Todorović,et al.  Prediction of climatic change for the next 100 years in Southern Italy. , 2010 .

[7]  C. S. Holling,et al.  Panarchy Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems , 2002 .

[8]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Early-warning signals for critical transitions , 2009, Nature.

[9]  Jon Norberg,et al.  Resilience Management in Social-ecological Systems: a Working Hypothesis for a Participatory Approach , 2002 .

[10]  Hong S. He,et al.  Evaluating the effectiveness of neutral landscape models to represent a real landscape , 2004 .

[11]  Bruce T. Milne,et al.  Lessons from applying fractal models to landscape patterns , 1991 .

[12]  Jack A. Heinemann,et al.  Agriculture at a Crossroads , 2008, Science.

[13]  Robert V. O'Neill,et al.  Neutral models for the analysis of broad-scale landscape pattern , 1987, Landscape Ecology.

[14]  C. Alados,et al.  Effects of fragmentation, abiotic factors and land use on vegetation recovery in a semi-arid Mediterranean area , 2007 .

[15]  Kurt H. Riitters,et al.  Source/Sink Patterns of Disturbance and Cross-Scale Mismatches in a Panarchy of Social-Ecological Landscapes , 2008 .

[16]  J. W. Bruce,et al.  The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths , 2001 .

[17]  Todd M. Scanlon,et al.  Positive feedbacks promote power-law clustering of Kalahari vegetation , 2007, Nature.

[18]  V. Guttal,et al.  Spatial variance and spatial skewness: leading indicators of regime shifts in spatial ecological systems , 2009, Theoretical Ecology.

[19]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Global Consequences of Land Use , 2005, Science.

[20]  R. Hobbs,et al.  Resilience, Adaptive Capacity, and the “Lock-in Trap” of the Western Australian Agricultural Region , 2004 .

[21]  Sabine Campe,et al.  Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective , 2008 .

[22]  T. Wade,et al.  Riparian habitat changes across the continental United States (1972–2003) and potential implications for sustaining ecosystem services , 2010, Landscape Ecology.

[23]  Mario Parise,et al.  Surface and subsurface environmental degradation in the karst of Apulia (southern Italy) , 2003 .

[24]  Sebastian J. Goerg,et al.  Fusing enacted and expected mimicry generates a winning strategy that promotes the evolution of cooperation , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[25]  Kurt H. Riitters,et al.  Global-scale patterns of forest fragmentation , 2000 .

[26]  C. Holling,et al.  Command and Control and the Pathology of Natural Resource Management , 1996 .

[27]  R. Hobbs,et al.  Key issues and research priorities in landscape ecology: An idiosyncratic synthesis , 2002, Landscape Ecology.

[28]  C. Folke,et al.  Linking Social and Ecological Systems: Management Practices and Social Mechanisms for Building Resilience , 1998 .

[29]  Sandra Luque,et al.  Changing landscapes to accommodate for climate change impacts: a call for landscape ecology , 2009, Landscape Ecology.

[30]  Stephen R. Carpenter,et al.  Early warnings of regime shifts in spatial dynamics using the discrete Fourier transform , 2010 .

[31]  M. Reichstein,et al.  Impact of climate variability and extremes on the carbon cycle of the Mediterranean region , 2013 .

[32]  Gil Regev,et al.  Growing Wings on the Way: Systems Thinking for Messy Situations , 2012, Int. J. Sociotechnology Knowl. Dev..

[33]  M. Rietkerk,et al.  Spatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems , 2007, Nature.

[34]  Marten Scheffer,et al.  The Evolutionary Basis of Rigidity: Locks in Cells, Minds, and Society , 2007 .

[35]  David B Lindenmayer,et al.  Adaptive monitoring: a new paradigm for long-term research and monitoring. , 2009, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[36]  Carl J. Walters,et al.  Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources , 1986 .

[37]  Kevin McGarigal,et al.  Behavior of class-level landscape metrics across gradients of class aggregation and area , 2004, Landscape Ecology.

[38]  K. Jones,et al.  Disturbance patterns in a socio-ecological system at multiple scales , 2006 .

[39]  D. Tilman,et al.  Global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion: the need for sustainable and efficient practices. , 1999, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[40]  E. Lambin,et al.  INAUGURAL ARTICLE by a Recently Elected Academy Member:Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity , 2011 .

[41]  A. Mariotti,et al.  Future Climate Projections , 2013 .

[42]  Lenore Fahrig,et al.  Detecting human-driven deviations from trajectories in landscape composition and configuration , 2010, Landscape Ecology.

[43]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems , 2001, Nature.

[44]  C. Folke,et al.  Adaptive Comanagement for Building Resilience in Social–Ecological Systems , 2004, Environmental management.

[45]  Jack Ahern,et al.  Spatial Concepts, Planning Strategies, and Future Scenarios: A Framework Method for Integrating Landscape Ecology and Landscape Planning , 1999 .

[46]  Robert H. Gardner,et al.  RULE: Map Generation and a Spatial Analysis Program , 1999 .

[47]  R. Pielke Land Use and Climate Change , 2005, Science.

[48]  C. S. Holling Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems , 2001, Ecosystems.

[49]  M. Scheffer,et al.  IMPLICATIONS OF SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY FOR CATASTROPHIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS , 2005 .

[50]  Robert H. Gardner,et al.  Neutral models for testing landscape hypotheses , 2007, Landscape Ecology.

[51]  Marten Scheffer,et al.  Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts , 2010, Theoretical Ecology.

[52]  T. Ceccarelli,et al.  Towards a process-based evaluation of land vulnerability to soil degradation in Italy , 2011 .

[53]  Bruce Evan Goldstein,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on Resilience Through Multi-scalar Collaboration The US Fire Learning Network: Springing a Rigidity Trap through Multiscalar Collaborative Networks , 2010 .

[54]  Roberta Aretano,et al.  KEY FUNDAMENTAL ASPECTS FOR MAPPING AND ASSESSING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: PREDICTABILITY OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE PROVIDERS AT SCALES FROM LOCAL TO GLOBAL. , 2014 .

[55]  Giovanni Zurlini,et al.  Multi-scale vulnerability of natural capital in a panarchy of social–ecological landscapes , 2010 .

[56]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Adaptive Capacity and Traps , 2008 .

[57]  T. Downing,et al.  Global Desertification: Building a Science for Dryland Development , 2007, Science.

[58]  Bai-Lian Li,et al.  Fractal geometry applications in description and analysis of patch patterns and patch dynamics , 2000 .

[59]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region , 2008 .

[60]  E. Ostrom A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems , 2009, Science.

[61]  John M. Anderies,et al.  Loss of Resilience, Crisis, and Institutional Change: Lessons from an Intensive Agricultural System in Southeastern Australia , 2006, Ecosystems.

[62]  M. Altieri Linking ecologists and traditional farmers in the search for sustainable agriculture , 2004 .

[63]  Giovanni Zurlini,et al.  Highlighting order and disorder in social–ecological landscapes to foster adaptive capacity and sustainability , 2012, Landscape Ecology.

[64]  G. Castiglioni,et al.  Sistema Statistico Nazionale-Istituto Nazionale di Statistica. Rapporto Annuale. La situazione del Paese nel 2010, Istat, Roma, 2011. , 2011 .

[65]  Timothy G. Wade,et al.  Informing landscape planning and design for sustaining ecosystem services from existing spatial patterns and knowledge , 2012, Landscape Ecology.

[66]  Desertification Vulnerability Map of Tavoliere, Apulia (Southern Italy) , 2009 .

[67]  Kurt H. Riitters,et al.  Patterns of disturbance at multiple scales in real and simulated landscapes , 2007, Landscape Ecology.

[68]  S. Carpenter,et al.  Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns , 2014, PloS one.

[69]  Mladen Todorovic,et al.  A GIS-based approach for desertification risk assessment in Apulia region, SE Italy , 2012 .

[70]  R. O'Neill,et al.  A factor analysis of landscape pattern and structure metrics , 1995, Landscape Ecology.

[71]  S. Hartley,et al.  Uses and abuses of fractal methodology in ecology , 2004 .

[72]  D. Sheil,et al.  Why Does Air Passage over Forest Yield More Rain? Examining the Coupling between Rainfall, Pressure, and Atmospheric Moisture Content* , 2014 .

[73]  Samuel A. Cushman,et al.  Data on distribution and abundance: Monitoring for research and management [Chapter 6] , 2010 .

[74]  M. Rounsevell,et al.  The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change , 2006 .

[75]  Robert M. Pirsig Man and Machine. (Book Reviews: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. An Inquiry into Values) , 1974 .

[76]  A. McMichael,et al.  Ecosystems and Human well-being , 2003 .