A detailed simulation approach to world energy modelling: the SIBILIN and POLES experiences

The 1970s and 1980s have been marked by drastic changes in the international energy markets. The early 1990s have seen the return of the oil dependency problem, but new issues are arising, in particular the concern for the planet’s global environment. To understand these changes and to identify appropriate strategies for the new challenges, structured models, relying on good quality information and retrospective analyses, are highly valuable tools. In this paper, we describe the effort that the IEPE (Institut d’Economie et de Politique de l’Energie in Grenoble) has undertaken to attain these goals. In the first part, we analyse the specific approach developed, that of disaggregated models for the simulation of the world energy system. We then describe the structure and results of the SIBILIN (Simulation des BILans energetiques INternationaux) model, which had been developed to carry out medium-term oil market scenarios. The third and final part presents the POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) model, presently being built to analyse long-term energy scenarios and their potential consequences on the global environment.