Simulating the impact of socio-economic trends on threatened Iberian wolf populations Canis lupus signatus in north-eastern Portugal

Abstract The IP4 highway and the new projected road network have been changing the critical Iberian wolf (Canis lupus signatus) habitat in Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro region (north-eastern Portugal). A holistic stochastic dynamic methodology (SDM) was developed for predicting changes in Iberian wolf population due to the new highways construction, increasing road traffic density and urbanization. The ecological indicators for wolf presence and abundance were estimated indirectly from the density of attacks on livestock. The low density of wild ungulates in the area makes livestock the main source of food for wolves. These indirect ecological indicators and state variables are the underlying database of our SDM model. This model focus on the interactions between conceptually isolated key-components, such as the density of attacks on livestock and changes in habitat conditions, providing some basis to analyse the responses of wolf populations to the environmental scenarios that will characterize the region in the future. The model proposed was preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure (stepwise multiple regression analysis) performed to discriminate the significant relationships between livestock attacks and socio-environmental variables. The holistic parameters of the model were estimated from the results of the statistical treatment and from regional data regarding tendencies within the use of land. The simulation results demonstrate the SDM capability in capturing the trends of this changing region, namely by showing a dramatically decrease of wolf attacks in the region for the next decade.

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