A critical view on the current application of LCA for new technologies and recommendations for improved practice

Abstract LCA is a well-known assessment tool that identifies and provides insights on the environmental impacts of products and services over their lifecycle. The guidance provided by the existing manuals typically applies to modelling and assessing environmental impacts ex-post, meaning that information is available from empirical experience after products have been commercially in use for extended periods of time. This information is not available if LCA is applied in an ex-ante manner before a technology is commercially deployed at scale. We identify the major challenges of applying LCA in an ex-ante manner and propose a route forward in dealing with these challenges that combines intuitions from other disciplinary fields. The first challenge is how to model consistent future foreground systems for the incumbent and new technology systems. Learning curves and scenario approaches are the way forward. The second challenge is how to model future background systems. Here a solution is to transform existing LCI databases towards future contexts, informed by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that provide scenarios in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Finally, uncertainty in ex-ante LCA is of a different nature as in ex-post LCAs. The main difference with conventional LCA studies is the highly uncertain information for the future. To acknowledge this. considerate attention should be attributed to the discussion on these uncertainties, both in the design of the assessment and the data used. Responsive evaluation can play a supportive role here. This will increase the transparency and efficacy of the results because the relevant stakeholders and experts are involved. In this way technology designers and other stakeholders derive insights on the influence of design choices or contextual factors (that are important, but hard to influence) on the potential environmental impacts of their foreseen technology.

[1]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Adaptive Robust Design under deep uncertainty , 2013 .

[2]  Reinout Heijungs,et al.  Digesting the alphabet soup of LCA , 2018, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[3]  Jaco Quist,et al.  Anticipatory Life Cycle Assessment of sol-gel derived anti-reflective coating for greenhouse glass , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[4]  Jeroen B. Guinée,et al.  When the Background Matters: Using Scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment , 2018, Journal of Industrial Ecology.

[5]  E. Guba,et al.  Fourth Generation Evaluation , 1989 .

[6]  Chris Yuan,et al.  Deriving characterization factors on freshwater ecotoxicity of graphene oxide nanomaterial for life cycle impact assessment , 2017, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[7]  Mark A. J. Huijbregts,et al.  ReCiPe2016: a harmonised life cycle impact assessment method at midpoint and endpoint level , 2016, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[8]  Keywan Riahi,et al.  A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture , 2014, Climatic Change.

[9]  Martin Kumar Patel,et al.  Ex-ante life cycle assessment of polymer nanocomposites using organo-modified layered double hydroxides for potential application in agricultural films , 2014 .

[10]  Martin Kumar Patel,et al.  Ex-ante environmental assessments of novel technologies - Improved caprolactam catalysis and hydrogen storage , 2011 .

[11]  Stefan Seeger,et al.  From laboratory to industrial scale: a scale-up framework for chemical processes in life cycle assessment studies , 2016 .

[12]  Gjalt Huppes,et al.  Life cycle assessment: past, present, and future. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[13]  S. Funtowicz,et al.  Science for the Post-Normal Age , 1993, Commonplace.

[14]  Stefanie Hellweg,et al.  Scaling Relationships in Life Cycle Assessment , 2014 .

[15]  S. Suh,et al.  On the uncanny capabilities of consequential LCA , 2014, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[16]  M. Margallo,et al.  Bringing value to the chemical industry from capture, storage and use of CO2: A dynamic LCA of formic acid production. , 2019, The Science of the total environment.

[17]  Sangwon Suh,et al.  A framework for technological learning in the supply chain: A case study on CdTe photovoltaics , 2016 .

[18]  Sverker Molander,et al.  Prospective life cycle assessment of graphene production by ultrasonication and chemical reduction. , 2014, Environmental science & technology.

[19]  Björn A. Sandén,et al.  Environmental Assessment of Emerging Technologies: Recommendations for Prospective LCA , 2018, Journal of Industrial Ecology.

[20]  Almudena Hospido,et al.  A review of methodological issues affecting LCA of novel food products , 2010 .

[21]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Exploring Deep Uncertainty Approaches for Application in Life Cycle Engineering , 2018 .

[22]  Esa Kunnari,et al.  Environmental evaluation of new technology: printed electronics case study , 2009 .

[23]  John M. Woodley,et al.  Life cycle assessment in green chemistry: overview of key parameters and methodological concerns , 2013, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[24]  Shelie A. Miller,et al.  Framework for analyzing transformative technologies in life cycle assessment. , 2015, Environmental science & technology.

[25]  Roland W. Scholz,et al.  Scenario Modelling in Prospective LCA of Transport Systems. Application of Formative Scenario Analysis (11 pp) , 2005 .

[26]  Joeri Van Mierlo,et al.  Environmental impacts of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles—what can we learn from life cycle assessment? , 2014, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[27]  Igor Linkov,et al.  Illustrating anticipatory life cycle assessment for emerging photovoltaic technologies. , 2014, Environmental science & technology.

[28]  Martin Pehnt,et al.  Assessing future energy and transport systems: the case of fuel cells , 2003 .

[29]  Jeroen B. Guinée,et al.  Applying an ex-ante life cycle perspective to metal recovery from e-waste using bioleaching , 2016 .

[30]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty , 2013 .

[31]  René Kleijn,et al.  Energy and climate impacts of producing synthetic hydrocarbon fuels from CO(2). , 2014, Environmental science & technology.

[32]  Martin Pehnt,et al.  Dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA) of renewable energy technologies , 2006 .

[33]  Sangwon Suh,et al.  The Role of Scale and Technology Maturity in Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies: A Case Study on Carbon Nanotubes , 2015 .

[34]  Jeroen B. Guinée,et al.  Towards application of life cycle sustainability analysis , 2013 .

[35]  A. Horvath,et al.  Grand challenges for life-cycle assessment of biofuels. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[36]  Thomas P. Seager,et al.  Anticipatory life-cycle assessment for responsible research and innovation , 2014 .

[37]  Masaaki Hirooka,et al.  Innovation Dynamism and Economic Growth , 2006 .

[38]  E. Hertwich,et al.  Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[39]  Jeroen B. Guinee,et al.  Handbook on life cycle assessment operational guide to the ISO standards , 2002 .

[40]  Matthew J. Eckelman,et al.  Comparative Evaluation of Chemical Life Cycle Inventory Generation Methods and Implications for Life Cycle Assessment Results , 2019, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering.

[41]  Ernst Worrell,et al.  Prospective life cycle assessment of an antibacterial T-shirt and supporting business decisions to create value , 2015 .

[42]  Franziska Hesser,et al.  Injection moulding unit process for LCA: Energy intensity of manufacturing different materials at different scales , 2017 .

[43]  Reinout Heijungs,et al.  Setting the stage for debating the roles of risk assessment and life-cycle assessment of engineered nanomaterials. , 2017, Nature nanotechnology.

[44]  B. Wynne.  Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm. , 1992 .

[45]  Björn A. Sandén,et al.  LCA of Emerging Technologies: A Methodological Framework , 2005 .

[46]  Franziska Hesser,et al.  Integration of LCA in R&D by applying the concept of payback period: case study of a modified multilayer wood parquet , 2016, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[47]  Rolf Frischknecht,et al.  Environmental assessment of future technologies: how to trim LCA to fit this goal? , 2009 .

[48]  Jeroen Guinée,et al.  Does ex ante application enhance the usefulness of LCA? A case study on an emerging technology for metal recovery from e-waste , 2017, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[49]  Jeroen B. Guinée,et al.  Ex-ante LCA of Emerging Technologies , 2018 .

[50]  André Bardow,et al.  Stochastic Technology Choice Model for Consequential Life Cycle Assessment. , 2016, Environmental science & technology.

[51]  Masahiko Hirao,et al.  A structured framework and language for scenario-based Life Cycle assessment , 2002 .

[52]  Reinout Heijungs,et al.  An Identification Key for Selecting Methods for Sustainability Assessments , 2015 .

[53]  S. Hellweg,et al.  Emerging approaches, challenges and opportunities in life cycle assessment , 2014, Science.

[54]  Marcelle C. McManus,et al.  Use of LCA as a development tool within early research: challenges and issues across different sectors , 2013, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[55]  E. Hertwich,et al.  Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe , 2016 .

[56]  Shelie A. Miller,et al.  Developing LCA techniques for emerging systems: Game theory, agent modeling as prediction tools , 2010, Proceedings of the 2010 IEEE International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology.

[57]  Mingming Hu,et al.  An approach to LCSA: the case of concrete recycling , 2013, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[58]  Liselotte Schebek,et al.  An Ex-ante LCA Study of Rare Earth Extraction from NdFeB Magnet Scrap Using Molten Salt Electrolysis , 2018, Journal of Sustainable Metallurgy.

[59]  Christopher L Mutel,et al.  Uncertain Environmental Footprint of Current and Future Battery Electric Vehicles. , 2018, Environmental science & technology.

[60]  Henrikke Baumann,et al.  The hitch hiker's guide to LCA : an orientation in life cycle assessment methodology and application , 2004 .

[61]  Joseph H. A. Guillaume,et al.  An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together? , 2016, Environ. Model. Softw..

[62]  Kiril Hristovski,et al.  Reducing environmental impacts of metal (hydr)oxide nanoparticle embedded anion exchange resins using anticipatory life cycle assessment , 2016 .

[63]  Hans-Jörg Althaus,et al.  The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework , 2015 .

[64]  Leo Schrattenholzer,et al.  Learning curves and technology assessment , 2002, Int. J. Technol. Manag..

[65]  Gjalt Huppes,et al.  Framework for scenario development in LCA , 2000 .

[66]  Franziska Hesser,et al.  Environmental advantage by choice: Ex-ante LCA for a new Kraft pulp fibre reinforced polypropylene composite in comparison to reference materials , 2015 .

[67]  Gregor Wernet,et al.  The ecoinvent database version 3 (part I): overview and methodology , 2016, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[68]  Jens F. Peters,et al.  Aqueous hybrid ion batteries – An environmentally friendly alternative for stationary energy storage? , 2017 .

[69]  Paolo Tecchio,et al.  Ex-ante Life Cycle Assessment approach developed for a case study on bio-based polybutylene succinate , 2016 .

[70]  Stefan Seeger,et al.  Life Cycle Assessment of a New Technology To Extract, Functionalize and Orient Cellulose Nanofibers from Food Waste , 2015 .

[71]  A. Audenaert,et al.  The Future of Ex-Ante LCA? Lessons Learned and Practical Recommendations , 2019, Sustainability.