Comparison of the global TRMM and WFD precipitation datasets in driving a large-scale hydrological model in southern Africa

This paper provides a comparison of two widely used global precipitation datasets in southern Africa: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Water and Global Change (WATCH) Forcing Data (WFD). We also evaluate the performance of the water and snow balance modelling system (WASMOD-D) in a water balance simulation of 22 gauged basins over the southern Africa region. Water balance for southern Africa was simulated using the two global datasets as input with regionalized model parameter values. The results reveal that the special variation patterns of mean annual precipitation from TRMM and WFD datasets and temporal changing trend are similar in southern Africa. However, they are quite different in terms of probability distributions. Simulation of WASMOD-D based on two datasets in southern Africa results in model performances of above 0.5 for Nash Sutcliffe (NS) values, below 10% for volume error (VE) values and a good reproduction of the observed flow duration curves for the majority of the basins. Finally, WFD data which have been bias corrected were observed to outperform TRMM data in southern Africa. The approaches and results described in this study contribute to the limited literature on regional hydrological modelling in the data-scarce region of southern Africa.

[1]  R. Vogel,et al.  Regional calibration of a watershed model , 2000 .

[2]  P. Döll,et al.  A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation , 2003 .

[3]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Estimation of Parameters of a Conceptual Water Balance Model for Ungauged Catchments , 1999 .

[4]  S. Wagner,et al.  Joint climate–hydrology modeling: an impact study for the data-sparse environment of the Volta Basin in West Africa , 2012 .

[5]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Model performance and parameter behavior for varying time aggregations and evaluation criteria in the WASMOD‐M global water balance model , 2009 .

[6]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Suitability of the TRMM satellite rainfalls in driving a distributed hydrological model for water balance computations in Xinjiang catchment, Poyang lake basin , 2012 .

[7]  P. Bauer‐Gottwein,et al.  Combining satellite radar altimetry, SAR surface soil moisture and GRACE total storage changes for hydrological model calibration in a large poorly gauged catchment , 2011 .

[8]  E. Toth,et al.  Calibration of hydrological models in the spectral domain: An opportunity for scarcely gauged basins? , 2007 .

[9]  Keith Beven,et al.  Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology , 2001 .

[10]  Xu Liang,et al.  A transferability study of model parameters for the variable infiltration capacity land surface scheme , 2003 .

[11]  N. Arnell Climate change and global water resources , 1999 .

[12]  Peter A. Vanrolleghem,et al.  Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - A framework and guidance , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[13]  Keith Beven,et al.  Using interactive recession curve analysis to specify a general catchment storage model , 1997 .

[14]  N. Bulygina,et al.  Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis , 2009 .

[15]  Göran Lindström,et al.  Water and nutrient simulations using the HYPE model for Sweden vs. the Baltic Sea basin - influence of input-data quality and scale , 2012 .

[16]  P. Zaag,et al.  Changing hydroclimatic and discharge patterns in the northern Limpopo Basin, Zimbabwe , 2010 .

[17]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Hydrologic Sensitivity of Global Rivers to Climate Change , 2001 .

[18]  Yudong Tian,et al.  Multitemporal Analysis of TRMM-Based Satellite Precipitation Products for Land Data Assimilation Applications , 2007 .

[19]  Luis Samaniego,et al.  Predictions in a data-sparse region using a regionalized grid-based hydrologic model driven by remotely sensed data , 2011 .

[20]  C. Piani,et al.  Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe , 2010 .

[21]  R. Meissner A HYDROPOLITICAL HISTORY OF SOUTH AFRICA'S INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASINS , 2004 .

[22]  Thomas Bernauer,et al.  How will combined changes in water demand and climate affect water availability in the Zambezi river basin , 2011 .

[23]  Donald H. Burn,et al.  Estimation of hydrological parameters at ungauged catchments , 1993 .

[24]  S. Jain,et al.  Trends in rainfall amount and number of rainy days in river basins of India (1951–2004) , 2011 .

[25]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Development of regional parameter estimation equations for a macroscale hydrologic model , 1997 .

[26]  M. J. Patrick,et al.  Transboundary Water Resource Management in Southern Africa: Meeting the Challenge of Joint Planning and Management in the Orange River Basin , 2008 .

[27]  C. Vörösmarty,et al.  Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. , 2000, Science.

[28]  Long-term evaluation of gauge-adjusted precipitation estimates from a radar in Norway. , 2010 .

[29]  Adebayo Adeloye,et al.  Self-organising map rainfall-runoff multivariate modelling for runoff reconstruction in inadequately gauged basins , 2012 .

[30]  Hoshin Vijai Gupta,et al.  A process‐based diagnostic approach to model evaluation: Application to the NWS distributed hydrologic model , 2008 .

[31]  Kathryn Furlong,et al.  Hidden theories, troubled waters: International relations, the ‘territorial trap’, and the Southern African Development Community's transboundary waters ☆ , 2006 .

[32]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Evaluation of spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Malawi: a case of data scarce region , 2011 .

[33]  L. S. Pereira,et al.  Crop evapotranspiration : guidelines for computing crop water requirements , 1998 .

[34]  Dieter Gerten,et al.  Effects of Precipitation Uncertainty on Discharge Calculations for Main River Basins , 2009 .

[35]  Marcos Heil Costa,et al.  A comparison of precipitation datasets for the Amazon Basin , 1998 .

[36]  Chong Xu,et al.  Testing the transferability of regression equations derived from small sub-catchments to a large area in central Sweden , 2003 .

[37]  Pao-Shan Yu,et al.  Using synthetic flow duration curves for rainfall–runoff model calibration at ungauged sites , 2000 .

[38]  R. Adler,et al.  Intercomparison of global precipitation products : The third Precipitation Intercomparison Project (PIP-3) , 2001 .

[39]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Statistical Analysis of Parameters and Residuals of a Conceptual Water Balance Model – Methodology and Case Study , 2001 .

[40]  C. Willmott,et al.  Uncertainties in Precipitation and Their Impacts on Runoff Estimates , 2004 .

[41]  Kenneth J. Tobin,et al.  Adjusting Satellite Precipitation Data to Facilitate Hydrologic Modeling , 2010 .

[42]  Petra Döll,et al.  Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis , 2006 .

[43]  Chris Kidd,et al.  Daily Precipitation over Southern Africa: A New Resource for Climate Studies , 2006 .

[44]  Ezio Todini,et al.  History and perspectives of hydrological catchment modelling , 2011 .

[45]  H. B. Mann Nonparametric Tests Against Trend , 1945 .

[46]  Richard J. Beckman,et al.  A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output From a Computer Code , 2000, Technometrics.

[47]  Xia Jun,et al.  Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958-2007 , 2010 .

[48]  Hoshin Vijai Gupta,et al.  Regionalization of constraints on expected watershed response behavior for improved predictions in ungauged basins , 2007 .

[49]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Regional water balance modelling in the NOPEX area: development and application of monthly water balance models , 1996 .

[50]  J. Susskind,et al.  Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution from Multisatellite Observations , 2001 .

[51]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  A comparison of regionalisation methods for catchment model parameters , 2005 .

[52]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Large-scale runoff routing with an aggregated network-response function. , 2009 .

[53]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Global‐scale river routing—an efficient time‐delay algorithm based on HydroSHEDS high‐resolution hydrography , 2011 .

[54]  Jun Xia,et al.  Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958–2007 , 2010 .

[55]  N. Arnell Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios , 2004 .

[56]  W. J. Shuttleworth,et al.  Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century , 2011 .

[57]  C. Ringler,et al.  Climate change implications for water resources in the Limpopo River Basin , 2010 .

[58]  F. Kogan,et al.  Drought Monitoring and Corn Yield Estimation in Southern Africa from AVHRR Data , 1998 .

[59]  W. Landman,et al.  Recalibration of general circulation model output to austral summer rainfall over southern Africa , 2003 .

[60]  T. D. Mitchell,et al.  An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high‐resolution grids , 2005 .

[61]  Naota Hanasaki,et al.  A grid-based assessment of global water scarcity including virtual water trading , 2006 .

[62]  Walter Collischonn,et al.  Daily hydrological modeling in the Amazon basin using TRMM rainfall estimates , 2008 .

[63]  Zhenchun Hao,et al.  Impact of climate change on flood and drought events in Huaihe River Basin, China , 2012 .

[64]  Mathieu Rouault,et al.  Rainfall Variability and Changes in Southern Africa during the 20th Century in the Global Warming Context , 2003 .

[65]  Hubert H. G. Savenije,et al.  On the calibration of hydrological models in ungauged basins: A framework for integrating hard and soft hydrological information , 2009 .

[66]  Chong-yu Xu,et al.  Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over China, 1951–2005 , 2009 .

[67]  András Bárdossy,et al.  Regionalization of hydrological model parameters using data depth , 2011 .

[68]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[69]  G. SCALE ISSUES IN HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING : A REVIEW , 2006 .

[70]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Predicting daily flows in ungauged catchments: model regionalization from catchment descriptors at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina , 2003 .

[71]  P. Xie,et al.  Performance of high‐resolution satellite precipitation products over China , 2010 .

[72]  Keith Beven,et al.  Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves , 2010 .

[73]  D. Hughes Regionalization of models for operational purposes in developing countries: an introduction , 2011 .

[74]  Berrien Moore,et al.  Modeling basin-scale hydrology in support of physical climate and global biogeochemical studies: An example using the Zambezi River , 1991 .

[75]  Thomas Keating,et al.  Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) , 2003 .

[76]  Dan Rosbjerg,et al.  Sustainability of water resources under increasing uncertainty , 1997 .

[77]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Regionalization study of a conceptual hydrological model in Dongjiang basin, south China , 2009 .

[78]  Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou,et al.  Satellite-based Flood Modeling Using TRMM-based Rainfall Products , 2007, Sensors.

[79]  Yang Hong,et al.  Evaluation of TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and Its Utility in Hydrologic Prediction in the La Plata Basin , 2008 .

[80]  Chong-Yu Xu,et al.  Operational testing of a water balance model for predicting climate change impacts , 1999 .

[81]  W. Bastiaanssen,et al.  Local calibration of remotely sensed rainfall from the TRMM satellite for different periods and spatial scales in the Indus Basin , 2012 .

[82]  Chong-yu Xu,et al.  Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960-2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation , 2008 .

[83]  A. Sterl,et al.  The ERA‐40 re‐analysis , 2005 .

[84]  M. Kendall Rank Correlation Methods , 1949 .

[85]  Wolfgang Grabs,et al.  High‐resolution fields of global runoff combining observed river discharge and simulated water balances , 2002 .

[86]  Y. Hong,et al.  The TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA): Quasi-Global, Multiyear, Combined-Sensor Precipitation Estimates at Fine Scales , 2007 .

[87]  Jan Seibert,et al.  Regionalisation of parameters for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model , 1999 .

[88]  András Bárdossy,et al.  Modeling of the effect of land use changes on the runoff generation of a river basin through parameter regionalization of a watershed model , 2004 .

[89]  P. E. O'connell,et al.  IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003–2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences , 2003 .