A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states

Weather forecasts today are prepared by both objective and subjective methods. Objective methods generally involve the use of numerical (i.e., physical/dynamical) and/or statistical models. These methods are objective in the sense that, for a particular procedure and set of relevant data, the forecasts produced do not depend on a meteorologist’s judgment, although subjectivity is involved in the choice of a procedure and a set of data. Subjective methods, on the other hand, are methods in which the formulation of the forecasts is based at least in part on the judgments of one or more meteorologists. According to these definitions, the official forecasts issued to the general public and specific users by the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States usually are considered to be subjective forecasts.

[1]  E. A. Zurndorfer,et al.  Trends in Comparative Verification Scores for Guidance and Local Aviation/Public Weather Forecasts , 1979 .

[2]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Probability, Statistics, And Decision Making In The Atmospheric Sciences , 1985 .

[3]  Leonard W. Snellman.  Operational Forecasting Using Automated Guidance , 1977 .

[4]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Information Aggregation in Probabilistic Prediction , 1973, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[5]  Robert H. Simpson,et al.  The decision process in hurricane forecasting , 1971 .

[6]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Use of an Analogue Procedure to Formulate Objective Probabilistic Temperature Forecasts in The Netherlands , 1983 .

[7]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[8]  J. E. Gaffney,et al.  Learning interpretive decision algorithm for severe storm forecasting support , 1983 .

[9]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Probability Forecasts: A Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters , 1974 .

[10]  Jerome P. Charba,et al.  Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service , 1980 .

[11]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: the Responses to a Questionnaire , 1971 .

[12]  G. Brier.  VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY , 1950 .

[13]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology: some preliminary results , 1974 .

[14]  A. Grosjean,et al.  Statistical Weather Forecasting , 1976 .