NONPARAMETRIC SPECIFICATION TESTING FOR NONLINEAR TIME SERIES WITH NONSTATIONARITY

This paper considers a nonparametric time series regression model with a nonstationary regressor. We construct a nonparametric test for whether the regression is of a known parametric form indexed by a vector of unknown parameters. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic. Both the setting and the results differ from earlier work on nonparametric time series regression with stationarity. In addition, we develop a bootstrap simulation scheme for the selection of suitable bandwidth parameters involved in the kernel test as well as the choice of simulated critical values. An example of implementation is given to show that the proposed test works in practice.

[1]  M. King,et al.  A New Test in Parametric Linear Models against Nonparametric Autoregressive Errors , 2011 .

[2]  Ioannis Kasparis,et al.  The Bierens test for certain nonstationary models , 2010 .

[3]  D. Tjøstheim,et al.  Estimation in Threshold Autoregressive Models with a Stationary and a Unit Root Regime , 2010 .

[4]  Jiti Gao,et al.  Semiparametric Regression Estimation in Null Recurrent Nonlinear Time Series , 2010 .

[5]  Qiying Wang,et al.  ASYMPTOTIC THEORY FOR LOCAL TIME DENSITY ESTIMATION AND NONPARAMETRIC COINTEGRATING REGRESSION , 2006, Econometric Theory.

[6]  B. Hansen UNIFORM CONVERGENCE RATES FOR KERNEL ESTIMATION WITH DEPENDENT DATA , 2008, Econometric Theory.

[7]  Ioannis Kasparis DETECTION OF FUNCTIONAL FORM MISSPECIFICATION IN COINTEGRATING RELATIONS , 2007, Econometric Theory.

[8]  Jiti Gao,et al.  Nonlinear Time Series: Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods , 2019 .

[9]  Hans Arnfinn Karlsen,et al.  Nonparametric estimation in a nonlinear cointegration type model , 2007, 0708.0503.

[10]  Qi Li,et al.  Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice , 2006 .

[11]  I. Gijbels,et al.  Bandwidth Selection in Nonparametric Kernel Testing , 2008 .

[12]  Vadim Marmer,et al.  Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, and Spurious Forecasts , 2005 .

[13]  P. Phillips,et al.  Testing Linearity in Cointegrating Relations With an Application to Purchasing Power Parity , 2005 .

[14]  Jianqing Fan,et al.  Nonlinear Time Series : Nonparametric and Parametric Methods , 2005 .

[15]  M. King,et al.  ADAPTIVE TESTING IN CONTINUOUS-TIME DIFFUSION MODELS , 2004, Econometric Theory.

[16]  D. Tjøstheim,et al.  Estimation in semiparametric spatial regression , 2006, math/0608053.

[17]  George Kapetanios,et al.  Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework , 2003 .

[18]  P. Newbold,et al.  Recent Developments in Time Series , 2003 .

[19]  Oliver Linton,et al.  Some higher-order theory for a consistent non-parametric model specification test , 2003 .

[20]  Dag Tjøstheim,et al.  Nonparametric estimation in null recurrent time series , 2001 .

[21]  Simon Parsons Proofs of theorems , 2001 .

[22]  Peter C. B. Phillips,et al.  Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series , 2001 .

[23]  Qi Li,et al.  Consistent model specification tests for time series econometric models , 1999 .

[24]  P. Phillips,et al.  A Primer on Unit Root Testing , 1998 .

[25]  Suojin Wang,et al.  A simple consistent bootstrap test for a parametric regression function , 1998 .

[26]  Ignacio N. Lobato,et al.  A NONPARAMETRIC TEST FOR I(0) , 1998 .

[27]  P. Phillips,et al.  Nonstationary Density Estimation and Kernel Autoregression , 1998 .

[28]  Dag Tjøstheim,et al.  Additive Nonlinear ARX Time Series and Projection Estimates , 1997, Econometric Theory.

[29]  D. Tjøstheim,et al.  Nonparametric Estimation and Identification of Nonlinear ARCH Time Series Strong Convergence and Asymptotic Normality: Strong Convergence and Asymptotic Normality , 1995, Econometric Theory.

[30]  P. Robinson Efficient Tests of Nonstationary Hypotheses , 1994 .

[31]  P. Brockwell,et al.  Time Series: Theory and Methods , 2013 .

[32]  H. Tong Non-linear time series. A dynamical system approach , 1990 .

[33]  P. Robinson,et al.  Hypothesis Testing in Semiparametric and Nonparametric Models for Econometric Time Series , 1989 .

[34]  P. Robinson ROOT-N-CONSISTENT SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION , 1988 .

[35]  P. Phillips Time series regression with a unit root , 1987 .

[36]  C. Granger,et al.  Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing , 1987 .

[37]  P. Phillips Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression , 1988 .

[38]  P. Phillips Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics , 1986 .

[39]  E. Nummelin General irreducible Markov chains and non-negative operators: Notes and comments , 1984 .

[40]  P. Hall,et al.  Martingale Limit Theory and Its Application , 1980 .

[41]  W. Fuller,et al.  Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root , 1979 .

[42]  S. Taylor Forecasting Economic Time Series , 1979 .

[43]  C. Granger,et al.  Spurious regressions in econometrics , 1974 .

[44]  Michel Loève,et al.  Probability Theory I , 1977 .