Spatial cross‐correlation patterns of European low, mean and high flows

Low and high flows are associated with different hydrological processes. High flows correspond to the direct response of catchments to water input, whereas low flows occur in pronged dry periods and are governed by depleting storages. Therefore, the inter-annual dynamics of high and low flows are often considered to be independent. To shed light on this assumption, we analysed a pan-European dataset of 615 streamflow records, summarized as time series of annual streamflow percentiles (5th, 10th, …, 95th). The analysis was based on comparing the spatial cross-correlation patterns derived from the different percentile series. Their interrelation was visualized by projecting them into a low-dimensional space. We found that large parts of the cross-correlations of the percentile series can be summarized by one dominating component. This component represents geographical continuous regions in Europe of correlated streamflow. Departures from this mean pattern occurred for low and high flows and were characterized by the corresponding spatial correlation functions. Generally, spatial correlations appear to be stronger for high flows than for mean flows, particularly for short distances ( 800 km), this pattern reverses and the spatial correlation of low flows become largest. This discrepancy between low and high flows suggests that hydrological systems are more homogeneously linked to climatic fluctuations under wet conditions. Under dry conditions, local catchment properties appear to play a larger role in translating climatic fluctuations into hydrological response. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[1]  I. Rodríguez‐Iturbe Ecohydrology: A hydrologic perspective of climate‐soil‐vegetation dynamies , 2000 .

[2]  S. Vicente‐Serrano,et al.  Positive and Negative Phases of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and Drought Occurrence over Europe: A Multitemporal-Scale Approach , 2008 .

[3]  T. Piechota,et al.  Relationships between Pacific and Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures and U.S. streamflow variability , 2006 .

[4]  H. Lins Regional streamflow regimes and hydroclimatology of the United States , 1997 .

[5]  B. Rudolf,et al.  World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated , 2006 .

[6]  D. Easterling,et al.  Variability and Trends of Total Precipitation and Snowfall over the United States and Canada , 1994 .

[7]  W. Falck,et al.  Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: Estimation and testing , 2001, Environmental and Ecological Statistics.

[8]  Koji Yamazaki,et al.  The summertime annular mode in the Northern Hemisphere and its linkage to the winter mode , 2004 .

[9]  D. Hannah,et al.  Regional hydrological drought in north‐western Europe: linking a new Regional Drought Area Index with weather types , 2011 .

[10]  L. Bouwer,et al.  Regional sensitivities of mean and peak river discharge to climate variability in Europe , 2008 .

[11]  B. Biggs,et al.  Flow variables for ecological studies in temperate streams: groupings based on covariance , 2000 .

[12]  S. Yue,et al.  Regional streamflow trend detection with consideration of both temporal and spatial correlation , 2002 .

[13]  Robert Sabatier,et al.  The ACT (STATIS method) , 1994 .

[14]  J. R. Wallis,et al.  Hydro-Climatological Trends in the Continental United States, 1948-88 , 1994 .

[15]  P. Robert,et al.  A Unifying Tool for Linear Multivariate Statistical Methods: The RV‐Coefficient , 1976 .

[16]  J. H. Ward Hierarchical Grouping to Optimize an Objective Function , 1963 .

[17]  G. Lischeid Combining Hydrometric and Hydrochemical Data Sets for Investigating Runoff Generation Processes: Tautologies, Inconsistencies and Possible Explanations , 2008 .

[18]  A. Gustard,et al.  Spatial and temporal variations in the occurrence of low flow events in the UK , 2000 .

[19]  Jared Entin,et al.  Evaluation of the AMIP soil moisture simulations , 1998 .

[20]  Lars Gottschalk,et al.  Stability of River Flow Regimes , 1992 .

[21]  Christopher J. Duffy,et al.  Detecting hydroclimatic change using spatio-temporal analysis of time series in Colorado River Basin , 2009 .

[22]  Jamie Hannaford,et al.  An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments , 2006 .

[23]  T. McMahon,et al.  Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification , 2007 .

[24]  Gregory J. McCabe,et al.  A step increase in streamflow in the conterminous United States , 2002 .

[25]  R. Sokal,et al.  Multiple regression and correlation extensions of the mantel test of matrix correspondence , 1986 .

[26]  Murugesu Sivapalan,et al.  Scale issues in hydrological modelling: A review , 1995 .

[27]  L. Tucker,et al.  Procrustes matching by congruence coefficients , 1976 .

[28]  A. Sutera,et al.  Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update , 2009 .

[29]  Günter Blöschl,et al.  Process controls on the statistical flood moments ‐ a data based analysis , 2009 .

[30]  Maciej Radziejewski,et al.  Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel , 2005 .

[31]  E. Vivoni,et al.  Ecohydrology of water‐limited environments: A scientific vision , 2006 .

[32]  J. Niemann,et al.  Sensitivity of regional hydrology to climate changes, with application to the Illinois River basin , 2005 .

[33]  Michael D. Dettinger,et al.  Global Characteristics of Stream Flow Seasonality and Variability , 2000 .

[34]  O. Bjørnstad,et al.  Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony. , 1999, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[35]  V. Smakhtin Low flow hydrology: a review , 2001 .

[36]  J. Olden,et al.  Redundancy and the choice of hydrologic indices for characterizing streamflow regimes , 2003 .

[37]  G. Blöschl,et al.  Top-kriging - geostatistics on stream networks , 2005 .

[38]  S. Pryor,et al.  How spatially coherent and statistically robust are temporal changes in extreme precipitation in the contiguous USA? , 2009 .

[39]  Mathew Barlow,et al.  ENSO, Pacific Decadal Variability, and U.S. Summertime Precipitation, Drought, and Stream Flow , 2001 .

[40]  G. McGregor,et al.  River flow teleconnections across the northern North Atlantic region , 2006 .

[41]  C. Duffy,et al.  Low‐frequency oscillations in precipitation, temperature, and runoff on a west facing mountain front: A hydrogeologic interpretation , 1999 .

[42]  David G. Kendall,et al.  A mathematical approach to seriation , 1970, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[43]  A. Stein,et al.  Identification of basin characteristics influencing spatial variation of river flows , 2006 .

[44]  R. Preisendorfer,et al.  A Significance Test for Principal Components Applied to a Cyclone Climatology , 1982 .

[45]  N. Krakauer,et al.  Mapping and attribution of change in streamflow in the coterminous United States , 2008 .

[46]  J. Hurrell,et al.  DECADAL VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION , 1997 .

[47]  David W. Williams,et al.  SPATIAL SYNCHRONY IN FOREST INSECT OUTBREAKS: ROLES OF REGIONAL STOCHASTICITY AND DISPERSAL , 2002 .

[48]  G. Blöschl,et al.  A national low flow estimation procedure for Austria , 2007 .

[49]  Harry F. Lins,et al.  Streamflow trends in the United States , 1999 .

[50]  N. Mantel The detection of disease clustering and a generalized regression approach. , 1967, Cancer research.

[51]  A. Robock,et al.  Temporal and spatial scales of observed soil moisture variations in the extratropics , 2000 .

[52]  Richard M. Vogel,et al.  Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation , 2000 .

[53]  Bülent Yener,et al.  Unsupervised Multiway Data Analysis: A Literature Survey , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering.

[54]  Z. Holden,et al.  Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948–2006 , 2009 .

[55]  S. Yue,et al.  Detecting climate-related trends in streamflow data. , 2002, Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research.

[56]  D. Burn Catchment similarity for regional flood frequency analysis using seasonality measures , 1997 .

[57]  P. Milly,et al.  Macroscale water fluxes 3. Effects of land processes on variability of monthly river discharge , 2002 .

[58]  G. Blöschl,et al.  Seasonality indices for regionalizing low flows , 2006 .