Effects of Early Decisions on Later Judgments in an Evolving Situation.

Abstract : Army intelligence analysts were given a realistic battlefield scenario and asked to make preliminary decisions about most likely enemy avenue of approach, and their confidence level. Subsequently, they were asked to reconsider their decisions in the light of updated intelligence reports containing some items which confirmed and some which contradicted their early decisions. Three such updating judgments were requested. Finally, they were asked to rate each information item in terms of the degree to which it supported or contradicted their hypothesis.