Modeling and forecasting energy consumption for residential buildings in Algeria using bottom-up approach

Abstract Buildings are the principal energy consumer and greatest fraction of greenhouse gas emissions in Algeria. Therefore, energy consumption forecasting is a critical and it helps to make good planning, long term strategies, efficient initiatives to curb emissions and controlling energy usage in the building sector. In this work, a bottom-up model has been used in modeling and forecasting of energy consumption for Algeria residential buildings until 2040. For estimating annual energy consumption, Algerian territory is divided into climatic zones according to annual cost of energy consumption needed for cooling and heating in the residential sector. The annual heating and cooling requirements of buildings in different regions of Algeria (48 stations) are evaluated using the degree-days method. Then, Geographic Information System (GIS) technique is used to create the cartography of climatic zone. In each zone, the energy consumption for heating, cooling and domestic appliances is calculated. The results showed, the final energy consumption increased from 73.23 TWh in 2008 to 179.78 TWh in 2040. In addition, climatic zone in Algeria is delineated in seven zones. Zone 7 consumes 73% of the final energy in Algeria. Cooking, heating and hot water are the major energy consumers in Algerian residential sector.

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