Multi-Epoch Analysis of a Satellite Constellation to Identify Value Robust Deployment across Uncertain Futures

The value of a system depends heavily on the future contexts it will encounter. For complex space systems with multi-year design and deployment phases, it is useful to design a system so that it delivers value to stakeholders over a wide range of future contexts. EpochEra Analysis, a computational scenario planning approach, decomposes the lifecycle of a system into sequential epochs that each have fixed contexts and value expectations. This paper applies Multi-Epoch Analysis (a subset of Epoch-Era Analysis) along with MultiAttribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE) to the design of a satellite constellation, with the aim of maximizing value across a range of end-user subscription and geographic distribution contexts. The system level tradespace is assembled using a bottom-up iterative approach based on expert knowledge, and accounts for performance attributes metrics such as revisit times, data latencies, observation times, and data downlink volumes. Competing designs consisting of alternative orbital, ground station location, and deployment configurations are evaluated in terms of their fuzzy Normalized Pareto Trace (fNPT) across epochs. The resulting staged deployment strategy delivers robust value based on stakeholder preference across a wide range of future contexts.