A Study of Nature-Inspired Methods for Financial Trend Reversal Detection

This paper presents an application of two nature-inspired algorithms to the financial problem concerning the detection of turning points. Nature-Inspired methods are receiving a growing interest due to their ability to cope with complex tasks like classification, forecasting and anomaly detection problems. A swarm intelligence algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and an artificial immune system one, the Negative Selection (NS), are applied to the problem of detection of turning points, modeled as an Anomaly Detection (AD) problem, and their performances are compared. Both methods are found to give interesting results with respect to an unpredictable behavior.

[1]  Pascal Bouvry,et al.  Anomaly detection in TCP/IP networks using immune systems paradigm , 2007, Comput. Commun..

[2]  Matteo De Felice,et al.  Soft Computing Techniques for Internet Backbone Traffic Anomaly Detection , 2009, EvoWorkshops.

[3]  Julie Greensmith,et al.  Immune system approaches to intrusion detection – a review , 2004, Natural Computing.

[4]  Alan S. Perelson,et al.  Self-nonself discrimination in a computer , 1994, Proceedings of 1994 IEEE Computer Society Symposium on Research in Security and Privacy.

[5]  James Kennedy,et al.  Particle swarm optimization , 2002, Proceedings of ICNN'95 - International Conference on Neural Networks.

[6]  Ralph Vince The Handbook of Portfolio Mathematics: Formulas for Optimal Allocation & Leverage , 2007 .

[7]  Zhou Ji,et al.  Real-Valued Negative Selection Algorithm with Variable-Sized Detectors , 2004, GECCO.

[8]  Fernando José Von Zuben,et al.  Learning and optimization using the clonal selection principle , 2002, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[9]  Fernando Niño,et al.  A Framework for Evolving Multi-Shaped Detectors in Negative Selection , 2007, 2007 IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computational Intelligence.

[10]  Alex Alves Freitas,et al.  Revisiting the Foundations of Artificial Immune Systems for Data Mining , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation.

[11]  Marco Dorigo,et al.  Swarm intelligence: from natural to artificial systems , 1999 .