Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

BackgroundA key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features.ResultsHere we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene.ConclusionThus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

[1]  W. B.,et al.  Foot and mouth disease. , 2002, Research in veterinary science.

[2]  Stephen Warshall,et al.  A Theorem on Boolean Matrices , 1962, JACM.

[3]  Stephen J. Garland,et al.  Algorithm 97: Shortest path , 1962, Commun. ACM.

[4]  A. Donaldson,et al.  Exposure of sheep to natural aerosols of foot-and-mouth disease virus. , 1986, Research in veterinary science.

[5]  R. Kitching,et al.  Infection of cattle by airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus: minimal doses with O1 and SAT 2 strains. , 1987, Research in veterinary science.

[6]  J. W. Wilesmith,et al.  Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months , 2001, Veterinary Record.

[7]  Christl A. Donnelly,et al.  Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain , 2001, Nature.

[8]  S. Cornell,et al.  Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape , 2001, Science.

[9]  Christl A. Donnelly,et al.  The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions , 2001, Science.

[10]  S. Alexandersen,et al.  The pathogenesis and diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease. , 2003, Journal of comparative pathology.

[11]  R. Kitching,et al.  A review of foot-and-mouth disease with special consideration for the clinical and epidemiological factors relevant to predictive modelling of the disease. , 2005, Veterinary journal.