Systematizing the impacts projection of complex decisions in work groups

Complex decisions can give rise to unexpected consequences from implemented actions. The main problem discussed by this research is the difficulty suffered by decision-makers in projecting impacts of a complex decision before the decision occurrence. Unexpected impacts of complex decisions demand mitigating action so that it is possible to intensify the positive aspects and neutralize the negatives. Dealing with unexpected impacts generates a cognitive overload on decision-makers and on the availability of material resources. To solve these problems, this research proposes the impact projection of complex decisions in a collaborative way, to be applied before the decision occurrence. The proposed solution considers a systematizing project impact of complex decisions inside work groups and delivers a framework and artefacts to support decision-makers in their decision impact tasks before the occurrence of a real decision scenario. This solution was evaluated by decision-making specialists and their goal was to investigate the applicability of this proposal to different teams. This is a qualitative research, and the method applied was the case study because we would like to deeply understand the behaviour of this approach in decision-makers team. The evaluation generated evidence on the feasibility of this approach, showing that the artefacts provide a systematic structure to orient what decision-makers must do to know and understand the impacts of decisions before their execution. This evidence is contribution for decision support field.

[1]  J. Sterman.  Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making , 1989 .

[2]  Neville A. Stanton,et al.  Naturalistic decision making: navigating uncertainty in complex sociotechnical work , 2018, Cognition, Technology & Work.

[3]  Hassan Qudrat-Ullah.  Better Decision Making in Complex, Dynamic Tasks: Training with Human-Facilitated Interactive Learning Environments , 2014 .

[4]  Bilal Ayyub,et al.  Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Second Edition , 2014 .

[5]  Yang Xu,et al.  Decision Making with Uncertainty Information Based on Lattice-Valued Fuzzy Concept Lattice , 2010, J. Univers. Comput. Sci..

[6]  Gary Klein,et al.  Naturalistic Decision Making , 2008, Hum. Factors.

[7]  Michael J. Radzicki,et al.  Measuring Change in Mental Models of Complex Dynamic Systems , 2008 .

[8]  Marcos R. S. Borges,et al.  The Assessment of Information Technology Maturity in Emergency Response Organizations , 2011 .

[9]  Marcos R. S. Borges,et al.  Shaping procedures to deal with complex situations , 2016, 2016 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC).

[10]  Marjan Laal,et al.  Benefits of collaborative learning , 2012 .

[11]  Luis M. Camarinha-Matos,et al.  Performance indicators for collaborative networks based on collaboration benefits , 2007 .

[12]  Lawrence G. Shattuck,et al.  Extending Naturalistic Decision Making to Complex Organizations: A Dynamic Model of Situated Cognition , 2006 .

[13]  Marcos R. S. Borges,et al.  Towards the characterization of impact projection for complex decisions , 2017, 2017 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC).

[14]  Flávia Maria Santoro,et al.  A formal representation for context-aware business processes , 2014, Comput. Ind..

[15]  P. C. Nutt,et al.  Handbook on Decision Making , 2010, Intelligent Systems Reference Library.

[16]  G. Klein,et al.  Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods , 1993 .

[17]  C. M. Allwood,et al.  Relating Decision‐Making Styles to Social Orientation and Time Approach , 2017, Journal of behavioral decision making.

[18]  Hassan Qudrat-Ullah.  Better Decision Making in Complex, Dynamic Tasks , 2015 .

[19]  Guy H. Walker,et al.  Using the Decision-Ladder to Add a Formative Element to Naturalistic Decision-Making Research , 2010, Int. J. Hum. Comput. Interact..

[20]  Henrik Eriksson,et al.  Analysis tools in the study of distributed decision-making: a meta-study of command and control research , 2012, Cognition, Technology & Work.

[21]  René Bañares-Alcántara,et al.  A new integrated tool for complex decision making: Application to the UK energy sector , 2013, Decis. Support Syst..

[22]  B. Schwartz,et al.  “Leaky” Rationality: How Research on Behavioral Decision Making Challenges Normative Standards of Rationality , 2007, Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.

[23]  S. Mohammed,et al.  Team Mental Model: Construct or Metaphor? , 1994 .

[24]  Marcos R. S. Borges,et al.  Support for systems development in mobile devices used in Emergency Management , 2012, Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE 16th International Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work in Design (CSCWD).

[25]  T. Connolly,et al.  The reinvention of decision making. , 1993 .

[26]  Fábio Müller Guerrini,et al.  A Systematic Review of Collaborative Networks: Implications for Sensing, Smart and Sustainable Enterprises , 2019, PRO-VE.

[27]  René Bañares-Alcántara,et al.  Managing Information to Support the Decision Making Process , 2012, J. Inf. Knowl. Manag..

[28]  Hamideh Afsarmanesh,et al.  Roots of Collaboration: Nature-Inspired Solutions for Collaborative Networks , 2018, IEEE Access.

[29]  B. Ayyub.  Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics , 2003 .

[30]  Hassan Qudrat-Ullah,et al.  How to Improve Dynamic Decision Making? Practice and Promise , 2008 .

[31]  W. Neumann.  Team Learning at Work - Activities, Products, and Antecedents of Team Learning in Organizational Complex Decision-Making Teams , 2017 .

[32]  Don Harris,et al.  Decision Making in Aviation , 2015 .

[33]  Pauline Leonard,et al.  The collaborative prescription: remedy or reverie? , 2001 .

[34]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Book Reviews : Scientific Opportunities and Public Needs: Improv ing Priority Setting and Public Input at the National Institutes of Health. Institute of Medicine. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1998, 136 pages, $26.00 , 1998 .