Generalizing From Atypical Cases: How General a Tendency?

We performed two studies to investigate the conditions under which individuals use anecdotal (case history) versus statistical (base rate) information in making judgments. In Study 1, a fictitious (unfamiliar) automobile, the Clipper, was rated after a 2-part essay about it was read that was either an anecdote followed by contradictory statistics or statistics followed by a contradictory anecdote. Statistical information that rendered the anecdote atypical had a great impact, whereas anecdotal information had little. In Study 2, 3 automobiles that varied in prior knowledge and evaluation were rated: Clipper (unfamiliar/neutral), Honda (familiar/positive), and Yugo (familiar/negative). The impact of statistical information on participants' evaluations was great regardless of prior evaluation or familiarity. We propose that the experimental paradigm used provides a good context for studying basic and applied issues relating to people's use of base rate information, and the results indicate that base rate in...

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