Critical Behavioral Assumptions in Evacuation Time Estimate Analysis for Private Vehicles: Examples from Hurricane Research and Planning

For communities threatened by hurricanes, evacuation time estimate (ETE) computation requires developing sophisticated evacuation flow models through analysis. In the last 25 years, significant progress has been made in this area. Accurate assumptions about risk area population behavior is required for ETEs, however, but evacuation models developed by transportation engineers have been poorly integrated with population behavior research by social scientists. The authors describe available ETE model-relevant empirical data, principal behavioral variables affecting hurricane ETEs, and recommended future analytic research and methods to address the disparity.

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