Hybrid forecasting model research on stock data mining

The synergy effect's benefit is widely accepted. The object of this paper is to investigate whether a hybrid approach combining different stock prediction approaches together can dramatically outperform the single approach and compare the performance of different hybrid approaches. The hybrid model includes three well-researched algorithms: back propagation neural network (BPNN), adaptive network-based fuzzy neural inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM). First, we utilize them independently to single-step forecast the stock price, and then integrate the three forecasts into a final result by a combining strategy. Two different combining methods are investigated. The first method is a linear combination of the three forecasts. The second method combines them by a neural network. We have all of the algorithms experiment on the S&P500 Index. The experiment verifies that by combining the single algorithm appropriately, better performance can be achieved.

[1]  Chih-Jen Lin,et al.  LIBSVM: A library for support vector machines , 2011, TIST.

[2]  Hiok Chai Quek,et al.  PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF ANTICIPATORY ACTION ON U.S. STOCK MARKET—AN EVENT STUDY USING ANFIS (A NEURAL FUZZY MODEL) , 2007, Comput. Intell..

[3]  Chung-Ming Kuan,et al.  Forecasting exchange rates using feedforward and recurrent neural networks , 1992 .

[4]  Kin Keung Lai,et al.  Adaptive Smoothing Neural Networks in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting , 2005, International Conference on Computational Science.

[5]  Francis Eng Hock Tay,et al.  Support vector machine with adaptive parameters in financial time series forecasting , 2003, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[6]  Hiok Chai Quek,et al.  Predicting the impact of anticipatory action on US stock market - an event study using ANFIS (a neural fuzzy model) , 2005, 2005 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation.

[7]  Vladimir N. Vapnik,et al.  The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory , 2000, Statistics for Engineering and Information Science.

[8]  G. Grudnitski,et al.  Forecasting S&P and gold futures prices: An application of neural networks , 1993 .

[9]  Jyh-Shing Roger Jang,et al.  ANFIS: adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system , 1993, IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern..

[10]  Paolo Tenti,et al.  Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates Using Recurrent Neural Networks , 1996, Appl. Artif. Intell..

[11]  An-Sing Chen,et al.  Regression neural network for error correction in foreign exchange forecasting and trading , 2004, Comput. Oper. Res..

[12]  David E. Rumelhart,et al.  Generalization by Weight-Elimination with Application to Forecasting , 1990, NIPS.

[13]  Rong-Jun Li,et al.  Forecasting stock market with fuzzy neural networks , 2005, 2005 International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics.

[14]  Alexander J. Smola,et al.  Support Vector Method for Function Approximation, Regression Estimation and Signal Processing , 1996, NIPS.

[15]  A. Refenes,et al.  Modelling Stock Returns With Neural Networks , 1993, Workshop on Neural Network Applications and Tools.

[16]  Apostolos Nikolaos Refenes,et al.  Currency exchange rate prediction and neural network design strategies , 1993, Neural Computing & Applications.

[17]  Ajith Abraham,et al.  Real stock trading using soft computing models , 2005, International Conference on Information Technology: Coding and Computing (ITCC'05) - Volume II.