Increased wetness confounds Landsat-derived NDVI trends in the central Alaska North Slope region, 1985–2011

Satellite data from the circumpolar Arctic have shown increases in vegetation indices correlated to warming air temperatures (e.g. Bhatt et al 2013 Remote Sensing 5 4229–54). However, more information is needed at finer scales to relate the satellite trends to vegetation changes on the ground. We examined changes using Landsat TM and ETM+ data between 1985 and 2011 in the central Alaska North Slope region, where the vegetation and landscapes are relatively well-known and mapped. We calculated trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tasseled-cap transformation indices, and related them to high-resolution aerial photographs, ground studies, and vegetation maps. Significant, mostly negative, changes in NDVI occurred in 7.3% of the area, with greater change in aquatic and barren types. Large reflectance changes due to erosion, deposition and lake drainage were evident. Oil industry-related changes such as construction of artificial islands, roads, and gravel pads were also easily identified. Regional trends showed decreases in NDVI for most vegetation types, but increases in tasseled-cap greenness (56% of study area, greatest for vegetation types with high shrub cover) and tasseled-cap wetness (11% of area), consistent with documented degradation of polygon ice wedges, indicating that increasing cover of water may be masking increases in vegetation when summarized using the water-sensitive NDVI.

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