Weapon System Capability Assessment under uncertainty based on the evidential reasoning approach

Abstract Weapon System Capability Assessment (WSCA) is the initial point of quantification of capabilities in the military capability planning (MCP). WSCA is often a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem with both quantitative and qualitative information under uncertain environment. In this paper, the analysis process and algorithm for WSCA problem is proposed on the basis of belief structure (BS) model and evidential reasoning (ER) approach which were developed to deal with various types of uncertainties such as ignorance and subjectiveness. First of all, the WSCA criteria hierarchy is built by analyzing how the capability is measured. Secondly, a weapon system capability model is formulated using BS. Thirdly, both qualitative and quantitative information involved in capability measure are transformed into BSs by the data transformation algorithm based on rules. Then, the analytical ER approach is used to aggregate the capability measurement information from sub-capability criteria to top-capability criterion, and the assessed weapon systems are ranked and analyzed according to utility intervals. Finally, a case study of real Main Battle Tank capability assessment is explored to show the proposed process for WSCA.