Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China

Abstract The Xijiang River is known as the Golden Watercourse because of its role in the development of the Pearl River Delta Regional Economic System in China, which was made possible by its abundant water resources. At present, the hydrological regime of the Xijiang River has now become complicated, the water shortages and successive droughts pose a threat to regional economic development. However, the complexity of hydroclimatological processes with emphasizes on drought has not been comprehended. In order to effectively predict and develop the adaptation strategies to cope with the water scarcity damage caused by hydrological droughts, it is essential to thoroughly analyze the relationship between hydrological droughts and pre/post-dependent hydroclimatological factors. To accomplish this, the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method (ESMD) was utilized to reveal the periodic variation in hydrological droughts that is characterized by the Standardized Drought Index (SDI). In addition, the cross-wavelet transform method was applied to investigate the correlation between large-scale climate indices and drought. The results showed that hydrological drought had the most significant response to spring ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation), and the response lags in sub-basins were mostly 8–9 months except that in Yujiang River were mainly 5 or 8 months. Signal reservoir operation in the Yujiang River reduced drought severity by 52–95.8% from January to April over the 2003–2014 time period. Similarly, the cascade reservoir alleviated winter and spring droughts in the Hongshuihe River Basin. However, autumn drought was aggravated with severity increased by 41.9% in September and by 160.9% in October, so that the land surface models without considering human intervention must be used with caution in the hydrological simulation. The response lags of the VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) to hydrological drought were different in the sub-basins. The response lag for the Hongshuihe, Yujiang, and Liujiang River Basins were mostly 0–4 months, 0–1 months, and 2–3 months, respectively, but there was no obvious regular change pattern in the Guijiang River Basin.