PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF SERVICE LIFE FOR STRUCTURES SUBJECTED TO CHLORIDES

Most service life models of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride loading produce only a single deterministic time to first corrosion. It is felt that probabilistic modeling of corrosion is difficult to understand, tediously slow to calculate, and of limited value due to strong dependency on the assumed input parameters. By use of a linearized analysis method and verified by a modified Monte Carlo technique, this paper shows that answers of acceptable accuracy can be obtained with only a few moments of calculation on a basic computer. The method is explained and demonstrated with examples. With such a technique, it is felt that probabilistic analyses of time to first corrosion can be simplified and achieve regular usage.