Broadcasting and Bandwidth

This chapter will briefly review eight spectrum skirmishes that precede and parallel the 1996 American DTV spectrum decision. We outline the general political and economic contours of these battles and conclude that regulators and lawmakers are at a distinct disadvantage in trying to promote competition, flexibility and a digital paradigm shift against the arrayed forces of incumbent spectrum users. In response we propose some models and concepts loosely drawn from computer science and political economics that might provide a resource to outgunned and well-intended policymakers. The first is the Consumer Value Integral, a theoretical and generalized model of spectrum valuation. One of the conservatizing factors in the spectrum wars is that incumbents can clearly and precisely identify financial gains and potential losses based on current business practices while challengers can identify only potential demand and usage. Furthermore, these valuations struggle to compare public good and private good components. Then drawing on Moore’s Law from computer science we speculate on some historical patterns of the next few decades and predict first an increase and then a decline in incumbent-challenger spectrum battles