Quantifying Long-Term Hydrologic Response in an Urbanizing Basin

Long-term hydrologic response is described within a rapidly developing watershed west of Washington, D.C. Data consist of up to 24 years of observed rainfall, basin discharge, and land use/land cover from four headwater basins of the Occoquan River. Three of the four study basins, ranging in size from 67 to 400 km², are predominantly forest and mixed agriculture. The fourth basin, the 127 km² Cub Run watershed, which is the focus of this study, has urbanized rapidly over the past 20 years (current impervious surface approximately 18%). Results indicate that Cub Run basin has higher annual and seasonal storm discharge per surface area than nonurban basins after 1983, when impervious surface in Cub Run basin reached approximately 9%. Only during the summer and fall is long-term storm runoff in Cub Run basin higher than nonurban basins. Long-term results support expected biophysical reductions in interception, infiltration, and evapotranspiration due to higher imperviousness, indicating that these reductions persist throughout the growing season, unlike adjacent nonurban areas.

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