Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat for dynamic spatial management

Capture of the target, bycatch, and protected species in fisheries is often regulated through spatial measures that partition fishing effort, including areal closures. In eastern Australian waters, southern bluefin tuna (SBT, Thunnus maccoyii) are a quota-limited species in a multispecies longline fishery; minimizing capture by nonquota holders is an important management concern. A habitat preference model (conditioned with electronic tag data) coupled with ocean reanalysis data has been used since 2003 to generate real-time predicted maps of SBT distribution (nowcasts). These maps are used by fishery managers to restrict fisher access to areas with high predicted SBT distribution. Here we use the coupled ocean–atmosphere model, POAMA (predictive ocean atmosphere model for Australia), and a habitat model to forecast SBT distribution at lead times of up to 4 months. These forecasts are comparable with nowcasts derived from the operational system, and show skill in predicting SBT habitat boundaries out to l...

[1]  George H. Balazs,et al.  TurtleWatch: A tool to aid in the bycatch reduction of loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta in the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery , 2008 .

[2]  Rebecca L. Lewison,et al.  Quantifying the effects of fisheries on threatened species: the impact of pelagic longlines on loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles , 2004 .

[3]  Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature , 1998 .

[4]  H. Possingham,et al.  Reducing bycatch in the South African pelagic longline fishery: the utility of different approaches to fisheries closures , 2008 .

[5]  H. Weimerskirch,et al.  Modelling the impact of fishery by-catches on albatross populations , 2001 .

[6]  Alistair J. Hobday,et al.  Near real‐time spatial management based on habitat predictions for a longline bycatch species , 2006 .

[7]  Renate Hagedorn,et al.  The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting-II , 2005 .

[8]  J. Roughgarden,et al.  The economic efficiency of a time–area closure to protect spawning bluefin tuna , 2010 .

[9]  Cécile Penland,et al.  Prediction of Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Using Linear Inverse Modeling , 1998 .

[10]  O. Alves,et al.  Dynamical Forecast of Inter-El Niño Variations of Tropical SST and Australian Spring Rainfall , 2009 .

[11]  Alistair J. Hobday,et al.  Habitat overlap between southern bluefin tuna and yellowfin tuna in the east coast longline fishery - implications for present and future spatial management , 2011 .

[12]  Randy Kochevar,et al.  Revealing pelagic habitat use: the tagging of Pacific pelagics program , 2002 .

[13]  H. Hendon,et al.  Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model , 2009 .

[14]  C. Goodyear.  An analysis of the possible utility of time-area closures to minimize billfish bycatch by U.S. pelagic longlines , 1999 .

[15]  O. Alves,et al.  Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef , 2009, Coral Reefs.

[16]  Alistair J. Hobday,et al.  Electronic Tagging Data Supporting Flexible Spatial Management in an Australian Longline Fishery , 2009 .

[17]  D. Heales,et al.  Validating ecological risk assessments for fisheries: assessing the impacts of turtle excluder devices on elasmobranch bycatch populations in an Australian trawl fishery , 2006 .

[18]  Q. Bone,et al.  Fisheries and aquaculture , 1995 .

[19]  Benjamin Kirtman,et al.  Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled tropical ocean-global atmosphere system , 1997 .

[20]  Peter R. Oke,et al.  The Bluelink ocean data assimilation system (BODAS) , 2008 .

[21]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg,et al.  Climate change and Australian marine life , 2007 .

[22]  Andrew B. Cooper,et al.  Movements of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean recorded by pop-up satellite archival tags , 2005 .

[23]  H. Schuttenberg,et al.  A Strategic Framework for Responding to Coral Bleaching Events in a Changing Climate , 2009, Environmental management.

[24]  Karen Evans,et al.  Movement and behaviour of large southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in the Australian region determined using pop‐up satellite archival tags , 2008 .

[25]  P. Ward,et al.  Inferring the depth distribution of catchability for pelagic fishes and correcting for variations in the depth of longline fishing gear , 2005 .

[26]  J. Druon.  Habitat mapping of the Atlantic bluefin tuna derived from satellite data: Its potential as a tool for the sustainable management of pelagic fisheries , 2010 .

[27]  J. S. Godfrey,et al.  Regional Oceanography: An Introduction , 1994 .

[28]  Upmanu Lall,et al.  Statistical Prediction of ENSO from Subsurface Sea Temperature Using a Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction , 2009, Journal of Climate.

[29]  Alistair J. Hobday,et al.  Ensemble analysis of the future distribution of large pelagic fishes off Australia , 2010 .

[30]  G. Edgar,et al.  Long‐term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices , 2011 .

[31]  O. Alves,et al.  Seasonal Prediction of Thermal Stress Accumulation for Coral Bleaching in the Tropical Oceans , 2011 .

[32]  L. Ciannelli,et al.  Geographically and environmentally driven spawning distributions of tuna species in the western Mediterranean Sea , 2012 .

[33]  K. Ridgway,et al.  Using satellite altimetry to correct mean temperature and salinity fields derived from Argo floats in the ocean regions around Australia , 2010 .

[34]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg.  Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs , 1999 .

[35]  O. Maury,et al.  Modelling the effect of marine protected areas on the population of skipjack tuna in the Indian Ocean , 2013 .

[36]  Kevin C Weng,et al.  Satellite Tagging and Cardiac Physiology Reveal Niche Expansion in Salmon Sharks , 2005, Science.

[37]  P. Oke,et al.  Eddy-resolving ocean circulation in the Asian Australian region inferred from an ocean reanalysis effort , 2008 .

[38]  R. Kleeman,et al.  The BMRC Coupled General Circulation Model ENSO Forecast System , 2002 .

[39]  B. Block,et al.  Oceanographic preferences of Atlantic bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, on their Gulf of Mexico breeding grounds , 2007 .

[40]  T. Stockdale.  Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Forecasts in the Presence of Climate Drift , 1997 .

[41]  Alistair J. Hobday,et al.  Dynamic spatial zoning to manage southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) capture in a multi‐species longline fishery , 2010 .

[42]  A. Hobday,et al.  Safeguarding the future of oceanic fisheries under climate change depends on timely preparation , 2013, Climatic Change.

[43]  P. Ward,et al.  Large-scale experiment shows that nylon leaders reduce shark bycatch and benefit pelagic longline fishers , 2008 .

[44]  Inter-American Tropical.  An ecological view of the tuna-dolphin problem: impacts and trade-offs , 1998 .

[45]  Tim N. Palmer,et al.  Dynamical Seasonal Prediction , 2000 .

[46]  N. Marshall.  Understanding social resilience to climate variability in primary enterprises and industries , 2010 .

[47]  J. S. Godfrey,et al.  Seasonal cycle of the East Australian Current , 1997 .

[48]  A. Barnston,et al.  Predictive Skill of Statistical and Dynamical Climate Models in SST Forecasts during the 1997-98 El Niño Episode and the 1998 La Niña Onset. , 1999 .