Using infrared satellite data to drive a thermo‐rheological/stochastic lava flow emplacement model: A method for near‐real‐time volcanic hazard assessment

[1] We combine two flow simulation models to provide a computationally efficient means of predicting the final dimensions of active lava flows. By using a stochastic approach to predict all the downhill paths that a lava flow could possibly follow and a thermo–rheological model to terminate these paths once the predicted cooling–limited length for the flow has been attained, this approach allows for rapid assessment of the area likely to be inundated by lava. The 1991–1993 eruption of Mount Etna is used as a case study. Lava effusion rate exerts a strong control on the maximum length a lava flow can attain, and we demonstrate how the model can be driven by time–varying effusion rates, obtained from infrared satellite data. As such data are obtained in near–real–time, this approach allows flow simulations to be updated in a timely manner, in response to changing eruption conditions.

[1]  G. Walker.  Mount Etna and the 1971 eruption - Lengths of lava flows , 1973, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[2]  S. Calvari,et al.  Formation of lava tubes and extensive flow field during the 1991–1993 eruption of Mount Etna , 1998 .

[3]  Lionel Wilson,et al.  Factors controlling the lengths of channel-fed lava flows , 1994 .

[4]  Andrew J. L. Harris,et al.  A chronology of the 1991 to 1993 Mount Etna eruption using advanced very high resolution radiometer data: Implications for real‐time thermal volcano monitoring , 1997 .

[5]  D. Rothery,et al.  Effusion rate trends at Etna and Krafla and their implications for eruptive mechanisms , 2000 .

[6]  Maria Teresa Pareschi,et al.  Best‐fit results from application of a thermo‐rheological model for channelized lava flow to high spatial resolution morphological data , 2007 .

[7]  Stephen Self,et al.  Some physical requirements for the emplacement of long basaltic lava flows , 1998 .

[8]  G. Wadge,et al.  The volume and shape of the 1991–1993 lava flow field at Mount Etna, Sicily , 1997 .

[9]  Harold Garbeil,et al.  Lengths and hazards from channel-fed lava flows on Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, determined from thermal and downslope modeling with FLOWGO , 2005 .

[10]  M. Favalli,et al.  Forecasting lava flow paths by a stochastic approach , 2005 .

[11]  A. Harris,et al.  FLOWGO: a kinematic thermo-rheological model for lava flowing in a channel , 2001 .

[12]  K. Ishihara,et al.  Numerical Simulation of Lava Flows on Some Volcanoes in Japan , 1990 .

[13]  A. T. Huntingdon,et al.  Lengths of Lava Flows [and Discussion] , 1973 .

[14]  D. Rothery,et al.  A simple explanation for the space-based calculation of lava eruption rates , 2001 .

[15]  A. Harris,et al.  MODVOLC: near-real-time thermal monitoring of global volcanism , 2004 .

[16]  S. Baloga,et al.  Eruption rate, area, and length relationships for some Hawaiian lava flows , 1986 .