To Fuel or Not to Fuel? Is that the Question?

According to the International Air Transport Association, the industry fuel bill accounts for more than 25% of the annual airline operating costs. In times of severe economic constraints and increasing fuel costs, air carriers are looking for ways to reduce costs and improve fuel efficiency without putting flight safety into jeopardy. In particular, this is inducing discussions on how much additional fuel to put in a planned route to avoid diverting to an alternate airport due to Air Traffic Flow Management delays. We provide here a general model to support such decisions. We illustrate it with a case study and provide comparison with the current practice, showing the relevance of our approach.

[1]  C. J. Pennycuick,et al.  Chapter 1 – MECHANICS OF FLIGHT , 1975 .

[2]  Andrew J. Cook,et al.  The hidden cost of airline unpunctuality , 2012 .

[3]  Andrew J. Cook,et al.  Dynamic cost indexing – Managing airline delay costs , 2009 .

[4]  Andrew J. Cook,et al.  The challenge of managing airline delay costs , 2009 .

[5]  Simon French,et al.  Statistical Decision Theory , 1980 .

[6]  Michael P. Wiper,et al.  Mixtures of Gamma Distributions With Applications , 2001 .

[7]  Michael A. West,et al.  Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models (2nd edn) , 1997, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[8]  Allan Larsen,et al.  Airline Disruption Management - Perspectives, Experiences and Outlook , 2007 .

[9]  V. W. Attwooll Costing Air Traffic Control Deviations , 1966 .

[10]  Graham Tanner,et al.  European airline delay cost reference values , 2011 .

[11]  V. W. Attwooll The Relation Between Aircraft Fuel Reserves and Navigation , 1981 .

[12]  Ute Beyer,et al.  Bayesian Forecasting And Dynamic Models , 2016 .

[13]  D. Rubin,et al.  Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences , 1992 .

[14]  B. Vasigh,et al.  Introduction to Air Transport Economics: From Theory to Applications , 2008 .

[15]  Lionel A. Galway,et al.  Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis: A Review , 2007 .

[16]  Andrew Thomas,et al.  WinBUGS - A Bayesian modelling framework: Concepts, structure, and extensibility , 2000, Stat. Comput..

[17]  Karla Hoffman,et al.  Estimating domestic US airline cost of delay based on European model , 2013 .

[18]  Allan Larsen,et al.  Disruption management in the airline industry - Concepts, models and methods , 2010, Comput. Oper. Res..